Wheat Responding Lower

After the WASDE release, wheat futures printed new lows for the day. Prices were down by 10 to 20 cents going into the report. The new cash average price from USDA was set at $10.50/bu from $10.75 last month. Currently, CBT SRW futures are 23 to 24 1/4 cents in the red. KC HRW prices are trading 28 to 29 3/4 cents lower. Midday MPLS wheat futures are down by as much as 34 cents. 

USDA adopted the old crop carryout given in the June 30 report, and reduced seed use by 4 and exports by 1 mbu to fit. New crop production was 44 mbu higher to 1.781 bbu after a higher yield and harvest percentage offset some of the planted acreage loss. New crop exports are raised to 800 mbu, compared to 775 estimated in the June report and 804 last year. 

Internationally, USDA trimmed the global wheat production outlook by 1.79 MMT to 771.6. That came as both the EU and the Ukraine were reduced by 4 MMT. Russia’s 500k MT increase offset the 500k MT loss from Argentina from the June WASDE, while Canada was raised by 1 MMT to 34. Global wheat carry-out was figured at 267.5 MMT, up 670k MT mo/mo but still 12.5 MMT tighter yr/yr.  

Global wheat carryout is estimated at 279.2 MMT on average, between 278.5 and 280 MMT from June’s 279.3 MMT estimate. New crop wheat stocks are expected to shrink 600k MT on average from June with analysts expecting between 240 and 272.5 MMT tomorrow. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  is at $8.39 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $7.68, down 25 3/4 cents,

Sep 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $8.30 1/2, down 26 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $9.10, down 10 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $8.34 3/8, down 30 1/8 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $8.85, down 30 1/4 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $9.41 3/4, down 26 1/2 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $9.29 3/4, down 34 cents,