S&P Futures Soar as Oil Prices Plummet on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, FOMC Minutes on Tap

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are trending up +2.82% this morning as oil prices fell the most in years after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, boosting investors’ appetite for risk.

The price of WTI crude tumbled more than -17% on Wednesday after President Trump said he had agreed to pause attacks on Iran for two weeks, contingent on the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council agreed to permit “safe passage” of ships through the strait and said negotiations with the U.S. will begin on Friday. In a social media post early Wednesday, Mr. Trump said the U.S. would be “helping with the traffic buildup” through the strait. “There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process,” he wrote.

S&P 500 futures’ gains accelerated slightly after President Trump said in a separate social media post that “many of the 15 points have already been agreed to.”

Treasuries climbed as investors bet that falling oil prices would help contain inflation and potentially put rate cuts back in play. The 10-year T-note yield fell five basis points to 4.25%, with swaps indicating a 41.6% probability of a Fed rate cut by year-end, compared with almost no chance at the start of the week.

Still, analysts noted that for the cross-asset relief rally to hold, traders will need confirmation that the ceasefire will last and that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal. “The bigger test is whether this evolves into a durable agreement rather than just a fragile pause,” according to Saxo Markets’ Charu Chanana.

Investors are also awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) soared over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company confirmed equity agreements with three Gulf sovereign wealth funds to support its takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. Also, health insurance stocks rallied after the government said it plans a larger-than-anticipated increase in 2027 payment rates for Medicare Advantage plans, with UnitedHealth Group (UNH) jumping over +9% to lead gainers in the Dow and Humana (HUM) surging more than +7%. In addition, Broadcom (AVGO) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker announced a long-term deal with Google to develop and supply Tensor Processing Units. On the bearish side, Apple (AAPL) slipped more than -2% after Nikkei Asia reported that the iPhone maker’s long-anticipated foldable phone had run into engineering hurdles and could face shipment delays.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. durable goods orders fell -1.4% m/m in February, weaker than expectations of -1.1% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m. Also, U.S. consumer credit rose by $9.48 billion in February, weaker than expectations of $10.5 billion.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday that his outlook for underlying price pressures in the U.S. remained largely unchanged, even as he expects higher energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict to lift overall inflation. Williams added that there was no need to consider any adjustment to the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. “Monetary policy is exactly where it needs to be, and then we can respond if the situation changes,” he said. At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the surge in oil prices, along with weak hiring by businesses, heightens concerns about the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.4% probability of no rate change at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.

Today, market watchers will pay close attention to the publication of the minutes from the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting. The FOMC kept interest rates unchanged last month, and the minutes will provide insight into how the decision was made. Moreover, the minutes could shed light on policymakers’ concerns about inflation or the potential economic effects stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Market participants will also be anticipating speeches from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be -1 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 5.5 million barrels.

On the earnings front, carrier Delta Air Lines (DAL) and alcohol giant Constellation Brands (STZ) are set to report their quarterly figures today. Delta Air Lines’ results will draw particular attention, providing a snapshot of how soaring jet fuel prices have cut into profits.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.25%, down -1.21%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +4.46% this morning, hitting its highest level in about a month as investors welcomed the two-week ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran. Stocks rallied across all sectors except energy on Wednesday, with travel, technology, industrials, and banks—widely seen as key beneficiaries of cheaper energy and lower yields—leading the advance. The benchmark index is on track for its largest daily percentage gain since April 2025. Data from Eurostat released on Wednesday showed that the Eurozone’s monthly retail sales fell in February, indicating consumers were on shaky ground ahead of the inflation surge driven by the Middle East conflict. Separately, data showed that German monthly factory orders rebounded to modest growth in February, ahead of the energy-price shock triggered by the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields tumbled on Wednesday as inflation concerns eased after gas and oil prices plunged on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal, prompting traders to scale back bets on potential European Central Bank rate hikes this year. Traders are currently pricing in two ECB quarter-point rate hikes by year-end, down from three a day earlier.

Germany’s Factory Orders, Eurozone’s Retail Sales, and Eurozone’s PPI data were released today.

The German February Factory Orders rose +0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of +3.0% m/m.

Eurozone’s February Retail Sales fell -0.2% m/m and rose +1.7% y/y, compared to expectations of -0.2% m/m and +1.6% y/y.

Eurozone’s February PPI fell -0.7% m/m and -3.0% y/y, compared to expectations of -0.6% m/m and -3.0% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +2.69%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +5.39%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, tracking gains across the region as a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran boosted risk appetite. Gold-related stocks jumped on Wednesday as gold and silver prices rebounded after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire. Semiconductor stocks also rallied. In addition, airline stocks surged as a sharp drop in oil prices alleviated concerns over higher fuel costs. However, some analysts anticipate that the rebound in Chinese equities will be relatively modest, given that they have not undergone a significant selloff during the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, China’s yuan hit a three-year high against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran boosted risk sentiment and pressured the greenback. In other news, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Wednesday that China’s President Xi Jinping urged a demand-driven strategy combined with reform and technological empowerment to develop the nation’s service sector. In corporate news, China Vanke Co. rose over +3% after Reuters reported that the troubled property developer was proposing to repay 40% of the principal on a yuan bond due this month upfront in exchange for a one-year extension. Investor attention this week is on China’s key inflation gauges for March. Economists expect China’s consumer inflation to cool slightly, partly as holiday-related effects that boosted February’s reading fade, while producer prices are projected to finally return to positive territory, reflecting the impact of surging energy costs.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today, hitting a one-month high after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The equity rally followed a plunge in oil prices after Trump announced a two-week pause in the U.S. military campaign in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices alleviated concerns about a commodity-driven inflation shock that would dampen economic growth, particularly in Japan, a major energy importer. Chip, metal, and real estate stocks led the gains on Wednesday. Export-oriented stocks such as automakers, which were heavily pressured by geopolitical concerns after the Middle East conflict erupted, also climbed. The benchmark index posted its largest daily percentage gain since April 2025. Ayako Sera, senior market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, said that “the market right now is basically in a euphoric mood,” adding that the risk-on sentiment could lift the Nikkei to the 57,000 level. Benchmark Japanese government bonds climbed on Wednesday as inflation concerns eased, while the yen advanced to a one-week high against the dollar. On the economic front, data released on Wednesday showed that Japan’s inflation-adjusted wages increased at the fastest pace since 2021 in February, reinforcing the case for the Bank of Japan to consider a rate hike as early as this month. Real wages rose 1.9% from a year earlier in February, marking a second consecutive monthly gain. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -9.21% to 36.09.

The Japanese February Current Account n.s.a. stood at 3.933 trillion yen, stronger than expectations of 3.549 trillion yen.

The Japanese March Economy Watchers Current Index came in at 42.2, weaker than expectations of 48.0.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks climbed in pre-market trading amid risk-on sentiment driven by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal, with Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL) rising over +4%.

Chip and AI-infrastructure stocks rallied in pre-market trading. Micron Technology (MU) was up over +10%, Sandisk (SNDK) was up more than +9%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) was up over +6%.

Travel stocks climbed in pre-market trading amid a slump in oil prices, with Carnival (CCL) surging over +10% and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) gaining more than +9%.

Levi Strauss (LEVI) popped over +11% in pre-market trading after the apparel maker posted upbeat Q1 results and raised its FY26 guidance.

Energy stocks sank in pre-market trading as oil prices tumbled, with APA Corp. (APA) plunging over -9% and Diamondback Energy (FANG) sliding more than -7%.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - April 8th

Delta Air Lines (DAL), Constellation Brands (STZ), RPM International (RPM), Applied Digital (APLD), PriceSmart (PSMT), Pure Cycle (PCYO), Richardson Electronics (RELL), Resources Connection (RGP).