High temps are threatening to reduce the amount of Indian wheat available for export. Chicago SRW ended the day 28 to 32 1/4 cent gains. That left July at $10.76 ahead of May’s expiration next Friday (13th). KC wheat futures were up 29 to 30 3/4 cents on the day. At the close, July was a 10 3/4 cent premium to May. In spring wheat futures, Wednesday’s session ended with 20 3/4 to 25 cent gains. July was a 4 cent premium to the May contract, and a 5 cent premium to new crop Sep.
Ahead of the weekly FAS data release, traders expect fewer than 200k MT of old crop wheat was sold for export during the week that ended 4/28. New crop wheat sales are estimated to be 100k MT to 250k MT in tomorrow’s report.
Census data showed the official total wheat exports were 18.263 MMT through March, as March shipments added 1.7 MMT. Compared to Feb that was a 143k MT drop off, but shipments in March were down 20.3% yr/yr. USDA had the official full year wheat export total as 21.36 MMT in their April WASDE. Mexico and the Philippines were the month’s top destinations.
The European Commission reported wheat shipments to destinations outside of the EU were 22 MMT through May 1st, trailing last year by 1 MMT. Ukraine’s APK-Inform estimated April’s grain shipments totaled 923k MT, compared to 2.8 MMT through the same month last year. Of that, 127k MT were wheat. APK Inform estimates grain harvest to total 55.9 MMT this season, but mentioned a ~16.3 MMT storage deficit due to destroyed or inaccessible or partially filled grain silos.
Trader estimates for the StatsCan Grain Stocks report range 9.54 MMT to 10.996 MMT of wheat stocks as of 3/31. At the high end, that is down 5.235 MMT yr/yr. Durum specific stocks are estimated at 1.363 MMT on average. The report is scheduled for Friday morning.
May 22 CBOT Wheat closed at $10.66, up 32 1/4 cents,
Cash SRW Wheat was $10.14 7/8, up 30 cents,
Jul SRW Wheat closed at $10.76 1/2, up 31 cents,
May 22 KCBT Wheat closed at $11.12 1/2, up 30 3/4 cents,
Cash HRW Wheat was $10.76 3/4, up 30 7/8 cents,
Jul HRW Wheat closed at $11.23 1/4, up 30 1/2 cents,
May 22 MGEX Wheat closed at $11.73 1/4, up 20 3/4 cents,
Sep 22 MGEX Wheat closed at $11.72 1/4, up 24 1/4 cents,
