March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.57%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.92% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as investors continue to sell risky assets amid a rout in precious metals.
Gold and silver prices fell on Monday as increased CME margin requirements compounded selling pressure following last week’s selloff triggered by Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed chair. Gold and silver are down more than -3% after sliding as much as -10% and -16%, respectively, earlier on Monday.
Also weighing on sentiment on Monday were renewed concerns around the AI trade. Oracle (ORCL) slid over -3% in pre-market trading after announcing plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year to expand its cloud infrastructure, stoking investor concerns about its growing debt burden. Separately, Nvidia (NVDA) fell about -2% in pre-market trading after CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment” and that it would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.”
This week, investors look ahead to a new round of corporate earnings reports, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and a slew of U.S. labor market data, assuming there is no prolonged government shutdown.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the red. Chip stocks sank, with KLA Corp. (KLAC) plunging over -15% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slumping more than -6%. Also, mining stocks cratered as gold and silver prices plummeted, with Coeur Mining (CDE) tumbling over -16% and Hecla Mining (HL) sliding more than -14%. In addition, PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI) plummeted over -33% after the company posted downbeat Q4 results. On the bullish side, Deckers Outdoor (DECK) jumped more than +19% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the owner of shoe brands Ugg and Hoka reported better-than-expected FQ3 results and raised its full-year guidance.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand rose +0.5% m/m and +3.0% y/y in December, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.7% m/m and +3.3% y/y in December, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y. In addition, the U.S. January Chicago PMI rose to 54.0, stronger than expectations of 43.5.
“The unemployment rate has stabilized, and inflation remains sticky with uncertainty lingering around tariff policy,” said Eric Teal, chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management. “There is justification for the wait-and-see approach given the potential for a second wave of higher prices as the tariff pass-through rate increases.”
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that policymakers should refrain from cutting interest rates further for now to avoid reigniting inflationary pressures. “Aside from risking higher or more persistent inflation, easing could be counterproductive for the labor market by raising inflation expectations and long-term interest rates, thus slowing the economy and hurting employment,” Musalem said. Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said elevated inflation means officials should wait before cutting interest rates again. “We are still too high in inflation, so I think we need to be somewhat restrictive,” Bostic said. In addition, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said there is merit in waiting to cut rates further, citing elevated inflation and uncertainty over possible distortions in economic data caused by last year’s record-long government shutdown. At the same time, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said, “Monetary policy is still restricting economic activity, and economic data make it clear to me further easing is needed.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 87.2% chance of no rate change and a 12.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government partially shut down early Saturday, even though the Senate had passed a funding deal hours earlier. That’s because the House of Representatives must also vote to approve the final version of the deal. The shutdown is expected to be short, with the House returning from a week-long break on Monday and President Trump fully backing the spending package. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Sunday that he believes he has enough votes to end the partial shutdown by Tuesday.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season continues, and investors await new reports from prominent companies this week, including Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Walt Disney (DIS), PepsiCo (PEP), Pfizer (PFE), Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), and Uber Technologies (UBER). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
Market watchers will also be awaiting the U.S. January Nonfarm Payrolls report this week for fresh insight into the health of the jobs market and the potential implications for monetary policy. Notably, the report will include revisions to job growth for the year through March 2025, which are expected to show a significant markdown in the pace of hiring. It remains unclear whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics could delay the report’s release due to the shutdown, even if it is expected to be short. “The market remains wary of what is happening in the jobs market and was unmoved by the Fed’s positive spin, continuing to price two 25 basis-point rate cuts this year,” said James Knightley, economist at ING. Other noteworthy data releases include the JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, the S&P Global Services PMI, the S&P Global Composite PMI, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, Average Hourly Earnings, the Unemployment Rate, Consumer Credit, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary).
In addition, several Fed officials will be making appearances throughout the week, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
Today, investors will focus on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, set to be released in a couple of hours. The survey will be closely watched for insights into the state of the economy and for clues on inflation and employment trends. Economists expect the January ISM manufacturing index to be 48.5, compared to the previous value of 47.9.
The U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will also be released today. Economists forecast that the final January figure will be unrevised at 51.9.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.214%, down -0.71%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.07% this morning, steadying after a sharp drop at the open as defensive stocks advanced. At the same time, mining stocks tumbled on Monday as a rout in metal prices continued. Energy stocks also slumped as oil prices plunged on easing U.S.-Iran tensions. In addition, technology stocks slid after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang dialed back apparent commitments to invest $100 billion in OpenAI, while Oracle said it plans to raise $50 billion this year. A survey released on Monday showed that Eurozone factory activity remained in contraction territory in January for a third consecutive month amid ongoing weakness in new orders, even as output returned to growth. Separately, data showed that Germany’s monthly retail sales unexpectedly rose in December. Meanwhile, market participants are bracing for a series of monetary policy decisions from central banks across the region this week, including those from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The ECB is widely expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%, with focus on any guidance regarding the rate outlook and remarks on the euro’s recent strength. “Renewed geopolitical uncertainty and the strength of the euro point to a risk of a slight dovish tilt in communications,” according to BNP Paribas analysts. The BoE is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, as U.K. officials debate how much further to extend their easing cycle. Beyond monetary policy, investor focus this week is on preliminary Eurozone inflation data for January, along with the bloc’s December retail sales figures. In corporate news, Bff Bank Spa (BFF.M.DX) plummeted over -45% after the Italian bank said its CEO would step down and lowered its 2026 financial targets.
Germany’s Retail Sales and Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI data were released today.
The German December Retail Sales rose +0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m.
Eurozone’s January Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, stronger than expectations of 49.4.
Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -2.48%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.25%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed sharply lower today, following a broader regional sell-off and disappointing economic data from the country. The benchmark index notched its largest daily percentage drop in almost 10 months. Non-ferrous metal stocks led the declines on Monday as gold prices tumbled after President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as central bank chair. Investors view Warsh as hawkish, suggesting interest rates could stay higher for longer, bolstering the dollar and increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver, thereby dampening their appeal. Technology stocks also slumped amid worries about stretched valuations and heavy investment in AI. Sentiment was further dampened after an official survey released over the weekend showed that China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in January, as soft domestic demand weighed on production at the start of the new year. China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which covers both services and construction activity, also unexpectedly slipped into contraction territory in January, dropping to its lowest level since December 2022. At the same time, a separate private survey showed that China’s factory activity grew at a quicker pace last month as export orders rebounded and output growth picked up. Analysts said variations in survey coverage and respondent profiles likely contributed to the divergent readings. In corporate news, BYD fell over -4% after the EV maker posted a 30% decline in its car sales in January from a year earlier, the largest drop in nearly two years.
The Chinese January Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, weaker than expectations of 50.1.
The Chinese January Non-Manufacturing PMI arrived at 49.4, weaker than expectations of 50.3.
The Chinese January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3, stronger than expectations of 50.1.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed earlier gains and closed lower today as risk sentiment soured. The Nikkei initially climbed as much as 1.7%, buoyed by a weaker yen that supported export-oriented stocks and an election poll pointing to a potential landslide win for the party of fiscally dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. A survey by the Asahi newspaper showed that Takaichi’s party is poised for a landslide victory in the lower house election, increasing the likelihood that the country will continue to pursue large-scale spending and tax cuts. However, the benchmark index gave up those gains and turned lower as chip stocks sank amid valuation concerns. Also, mining stocks cratered as gold prices plunged following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next head of the Fed. Meanwhile, a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s January meeting released on Monday showed that policymakers discussed rising price pressures from a weak yen, with some warning of the risk of falling “behind the curve” in addressing elevated inflation. Most opinions in the January summary supported continued, gradual rate hikes, with one noting there was little need to be overly concerned that higher borrowing costs would weigh on corporate profits. On the economic front, a private-sector survey showed on Monday that Japan’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in roughly three and a half years in January, as strong customer demand boosted both output and new orders. Investor focus this week is on Japan’s December household spending data, which will offer insight into the willingness of the nation’s consumers to spend. Attention will then turn to Japan’s Lower House election to be held on Sunday, February 8th. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +4.55% to 36.32.
The Japanese January au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI remained unrevised at 51.5, in line with expectations.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Chip stocks are moving lower in pre-market trading amid risk-off sentiment, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) falling over -2% and Marvell Technology (MRVL) dropping more than -1%.
Oracle (ORCL) slid over -3% in pre-market trading after announcing plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion this year to expand its cloud infrastructure, stoking investor concerns about its growing debt burden.
Nvidia (NVDA) fell about -2% in pre-market trading after CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment” and that it would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.”
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in pre-market trading after the price of Bitcoin tumbled over the weekend. Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -7%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is down over -4%, and Coinbase (COIN) is down more than -3%.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after William Blair upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - February 2nd
Palantir (PLTR), Walt Disney (DIS), Simon Property (SPG), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), Teradyne (TER), Tyson Foods (TSN), Woodward (WWD), Fabrinet (FN), Aptiv (APTV), Revvity (RVTY), Rambus (RMBS), Healthpeak Properties (DOC), DaVita (DVA), MGIC Investment (MTG), NewJersey Resources (NJR), Hess Midstream Partners (HESM), Alliance Resource (ARLP), Ashland Global (ASH), Twist Bioscience (TWST), Capital Southwest (CSWC), NAPCO (NSSC), Two Harbors (TWO), Kforce (KFRC), Flexsteel (FLXS).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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