S&P Futures Gain as Oil Prices Retreat, U.S. PCE Inflation and GDP Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending up +0.33% this morning, rebounding slightly from yesterday’s sharp losses as oil prices retreated, while investors await a flurry of U.S. economic data, with particular attention on the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.

There is little indication that the conflict in the Middle East is nearing de-escalation on its 14th day, with both President Trump and Iran’s new supreme leader escalating their rhetoric. Still, the price of WTI crude fell more than -2% after the U.S. temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil already at sea in an effort to expand available crude supply. The Trump administration is also reportedly preparing to waive a century-old maritime law that mandates the use of American vessels to transport goods between U.S. ports.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed sharply lower. The Magnificent Seven stocks slid, with Tesla (TSLA) dropping over -3% and Meta Platforms (META) falling more than -2%. Also, chip stocks sank, with Intel (INTC) sliding more than -5% and Microchip Technology (MCHP) dropping over -4%. In addition, bank stocks slumped after Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater LLC limited withdrawals from their multibillion-dollar private credit funds, with Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) falling more than -4%. On the bullish side, CF Industries Holdings (CF) surged over +13% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Mosaic Co. (MOS) climbed more than +7% as fertilizer makers continued to benefit from the prospect of higher prices amid shipping disruptions.

“The number one issue facing the markets right now is obviously the war. The conflict in the Middle East is not abating. This caused crude oil to spike. We also have the issue of the growing stress on the credit markets,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -1K to 213K, compared with the 214K expected. Also, U.S. January housing starts unexpectedly rose +7.2% m/m to an 11-month high of 1.487 million, stronger than expectations of 1.340 million, while building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -5.4% m/m to a 5-month low of 1.376 million, weaker than expectations of 1.420 million. In addition, the U.S. January trade deficit narrowed to -$54.5 billion, stronger than expectations of -$66.6 billion.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has launched the first of several trade probes, paving the way for new levies to replace those that were struck down. China, the European Union, and Japan are among the major economies under investigation.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y in January, compared to +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y in December.

“The risks to the data could be asymmetric. A benign print will be business as usual. A hot print will raise fears of rising inflation going into the inflationary impacts of an energy crisis,” said Kyle Rodda at Capital.com. 

The U.S. Commerce Department’s second estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, in line with an initial estimate.

The U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures will be reported today. Economists anticipate that the January JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 6.760 million, compared to the December figure of 6.542 million.

U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be released today. Economists expect January Personal Spending to rise +0.3% m/m and Personal Income to grow +0.5% m/m, compared to the December figures of +0.4% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data will come in today. Economists project January Durable Goods Orders to rise +1.1% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders to rise +0.5% m/m, compared to the prior numbers of -1.4% m/m and +0.9% m/m, respectively.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well.  Economists forecast that the preliminary March figure will stand at 55.0, compared to 56.6 in February.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.1% probability of no rate change and a 0.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.28%, up +0.23%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.21% this morning as sentiment remains downbeat amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Economically sensitive bank stocks sank on Friday, also undermined by signs of strain in private credit markets. Mining, construction, and automobile stocks also fell. At the same time, energy stocks advanced. The benchmark index is on track to notch a second consecutive weekly loss. Data from the Office for National Statistics released on Friday showed that the U.K. economy unexpectedly stalled in January, indicating activity was already losing momentum before the Middle East conflict erupted. Separately, final data showed that France’s annual inflation rate rose less than initially estimated in February, while Spain’s inflation held steady last month, in line with the preliminary reading. In addition, data showed that the Eurozone’s monthly industrial production unexpectedly declined in January, with headwinds facing the sector likely to intensify in the months ahead due to the surge in oil prices. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields rose on Friday amid lingering worries about the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict. In corporate news, BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (BESI.NA) surged over +11% after Reuters reported that the chip equipment maker had attracted takeover interest.

U.K. GDP, France’s CPI, Spain’s CPI, and Eurozone’s Industrial Production data were released today.

U.K. January GDP was unchanged m/m and rose +0.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.9% y/y.

The French February CPI rose +0.6% m/m and +0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.7% m/m and +1.0% y/y.

The Spanish February CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +2.3% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone’s January Industrial Production unexpectedly fell -1.5% m/m and -1.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m and +1.4% y/y.

Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.82%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.16%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, tracking declines in regional peers as investors remained wary of risks from the Middle East conflict heading into the weekend. Defiant rhetoric from leaders in Washington and Tehran signaled that the conflict remains far from de-escalation after nearly two weeks of fighting. Semiconductor and other AI-related stocks slid on Friday. Rare earth stocks also slumped. The benchmark index posted losses for the week. Notably, the weekly drop was far milder than that of its regional peers, with analysts saying China is likely to be relatively less affected by the Middle East conflict than others. They point to China’s ample crude reserves, deflationary backdrop, and scope for government intervention in fuel pricing, equity markets, and foreign exchange. Still, Goldman Sachs on Friday trimmed its 2026 gross domestic product forecast for China to 4.7% from 4.8% amid the escalating Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department said on Thursday that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will hold talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in France on March 15-16, as both sides prepare for U.S. President Donald Trump to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing later this month. In corporate news, Li Auto slid over -3% in Hong Kong after the automaker posted a more than 99% drop in Q4 net profit and issued soft Q1 guidance. Investors are looking ahead to China’s February credit data and activity indicators, including retail sales, due next week for signals on domestic economic momentum.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed lower today, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street as the Middle East conflict continues. The Nikkei came off the session lows after the U.S. issued a second temporary waiver permitting purchases of Russian oil. Automobile stocks led the declines on Friday, dragged lower by a more than -5% drop in Honda Motor after Japan’s second-largest automaker warned of its first annual loss in nearly 70 years as a listed firm, burdened by up to $15.7 billion in restructuring charges linked to its EV business. Chip and real estate stocks also slumped. The benchmark index notched a second consecutive weekly loss. Meanwhile, the yen slipped to its weakest level against the dollar since July 2024 on Friday. Japan’s heavy dependence on energy imports from the Middle East means rising crude prices deteriorate the trade balance and fuel inflation, naturally putting pressure on the Japanese currency. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that authorities stand ready to take all necessary measures at any time to counter sharp fluctuations in foreign exchange and other financial markets, which have a significant impact on people’s livelihoods. In other news, Reuters reported on Thursday that new supply shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict could accelerate the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance by heightening inflation risks, keeping the possibility of another rate hike as early as April on the table. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +3.22% to 45.80.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks edged higher in pre-market trading, with Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL) rising about +0.7%.

Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX) gained more than +1% in pre-market trading after Citi upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $64.

Adobe (ADBE) slumped over -8% in pre-market trading as news of the resignation of long-time CEO Shantanu Narayen overshadowed better-than-expected FQ1 results and FQ2 guidance.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) sank more than -8% in pre-market trading after the cosmetics and fragrances retailer issued below-consensus FY26 guidance for comparable sales growth and EPS.

SentinelOne (S) slid over -5% in pre-market trading after the cybersecurity company provided disappointing Q1 guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - March 13th

National Beverage (FIZZ), The Buckle (BKE), Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA), Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT), MeiraGTx Holdings (MGTX), Better Home & Finance Holding Company (BETR), AlTi Global (ALTI), Bit Digital (BTBT), Lexeo Therapeutics (LXEO), Contango Ore (CTGO), Graf Global (GRAF), SilverBox Corp IV (SBXD), Perma-Fix Environmental Services (PESI), Achieve Life Sciences (ACHV), Waldencast (WALD), ProQR Therapeutics (PRQR), Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding (TNXP).