Wheat Rallies the Limit on Tuesday as USDA Releases Production Updates

The wheat complex was in rally mode on Tuesday, hitting the limit in a few contracts. Chicago SRW was up as little as 13 ½ cents in the deferreds to the 45 cent limit in July. KC HRW futures rallied from 27 ¼ cents higher to the limit in the front months on Tuesday. MPLS spring wheat joined in on the rally, with contracts up 17 ½ to 37 ½ cents. The CBT and KC markets will have expanded limits of 70 cents on Wednesday. 

The USDA Crop Production report from this morning showed winter wheat production at 1.048 bbu, which was well below estimates of 1.211 bbu. HRW production was seen at 514.8 mbu, with SRW at 300.9 mbu and white winter at 231.8 mbu. All wheat production was 1.561 bbu, 186 mbu below the average estimate.

The May WASDE showed old crop stocks at 935 mbu, which was down 3 mbu from the April total, on a 7 mbu cut to food and 10 mbu increase to exports. New crop US stocks were seen at 762 mbu, compared to estimates of 845 mbu, mainly on the lower production. World stocks were 279.21 MMT on old crop, down 3.91 MMT from the April total. Ending stocks for 2026/27 were pegged at 275.04 MMT in the initial estimate.

Crop Progress data showed winter wheat ratings were down 3% to 28% gd/ex, all shifting to very poor ratings. Brugler500 index was down 9 points to 277. An average of the main HRW states was rated at 227, the lowest for this specific week since at least 2000. SRW states averaged 358, which was the lowest for this week since 2019. 

Jul 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.79, up 45 cents,

Sep 26 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.91 1/2, up 42 3/4 cents,

Jul 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.31 1/4, up 45 cents,

Sep 26 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.42 1/4, up 45 cents,

Jul 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.24, up 37 1/2 cents,

Sep 26 MIAX Wheat  closed at $7.45 3/4, up 36 3/4 cents,