Wheats Firming Higher ahead of Grain Stocks

Wheat futures are seeing sharp gains for FND in the July contracts as the other futures are 3 to 12 cents higher through the domestic classes. Chicago wheat tried to stage a Thursday recovery but faded a dime from the earlier highs to close 2 1/4 to 3 1/2 cents in the red. Spring wheat prices also faded 5-9 cents from their intra-day highs, but held onto 3 3/4 to 7 1/4 cent gains for the close. HRW futures extended the week’s pullback with another 5 3/4 to 7 1/2 cent losses on Thursday.  Overnight, there were 361   put out against July CBT futures.  

Traders are looking for NASS to show between 588 mbu and 695 mbu for wheat ending stocks, with Bloomberg computing the average as 613 million. The June WASDE had 598 million dialed in. The acreage estimates for 2023 range from 48.6 million to 50.2m. The average for all wheat is to see a 200k decrease from intentions. Of that, spring wheat is expected to drop 70k acres to 10.5 million. 

The weekly Export Sales report showed 155,167 MT of wheat was sold during the week that ended 6/22. Estimates were to see between 50k and 400k MT. By class, HRS makes up 30.3% of the committed 23/24 business. HRW sits at 22% with 30% for SRW. 

Russia’s 23/24 wheat harvest has begun. According to the Ministry of Agriculture Russia has harvested 2 MMT of grains through 6/28 - ahead of last year’s pace. The Russian Federation has planted 55.6m HA through 6/28, which is more area than last year but the planting pace as a percentage of expected area is inline with average. 

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.53, down 2 3/4 cents, currently up 4 1/2 cents

Sep 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.67 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents, currently up 3 1/2 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.08 3/8, down 1 5/8 cents,

Jul 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.94 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents, currently up 19 3/4 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $7.52, down 7 3/8 cents,

Jul 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.07 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents, currently up 3 3/4 cents