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Silver Sep '19 (SIU19)

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Silver Futures Market News and Commentary

Precious Metals Close Lower on Stronger Stocks

Dec Comex gold (GCZ19) on Friday closed down -7.6 (-0.50%), and Sep silver (SIU19) closed down -0.092 (-0.53%). Metals prices fell back Friday as an easing of U.S./China trade tensions sparked a rally in equities and reduced safe-haven demand for precious metals. Trade tensions eased after President Trump late Thursday said he had a call scheduled "very soon" with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade. The renewed trade optimism also boosted the dollar index to a 2-week high Friday, which also undercut precious metals prices. The yuan on Friday fell -0.13% to 7.0428 yuan/USD, modestly above Tuesday's 11-1/4 year low of 7.0726 yuan/USD. A plunge in global government bond yields is supportive for gold as a store of value. The 10-year German bund yield on Friday fell to new record low of -0.717% before stabilizing and the 10-year Japan bond yield slid to a 3-year low of -0.250% Friday before recovering to -0.228%. Friday's U.S economic data was mixed for metals prices. July housing starts unexpectedly fell -4.0% to a 5-month low of 1.191 million, weaker than expectations of +0.2% to 1.256 million, which was dovish for Fed policy. However, July building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +8.4% to a 7-month high of 1.336 million, stronger than expectations of +3.1% to 1.270 million, which was hawkish for Fed policy. Ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions, along with dovish central bank expectations, have sparked fund buying of precious metals as long gold positions in ETFs rose to a 6-1/4 year high Thursday and long silver positions in ETFs rose to a new record high Thursday. Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) the action by the world's central banks to continue cutting interest rates as trade tensions take a toll on global growth, (2) low global inflation that is dovish for central bank policies, and (3) safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, Brexit, and global geopolitical risks involving Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) the Fed's go-slow approach to cutting interest rates, (2) the recent rally in the S&P 500 to an all-time high, which reduced safe-haven demand for gold, and (3) concern that a slowdown in the global economy will crimp demand for industrial metals, including silver.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Silver 5,000-oz
Contract Size
5,000 troy ounces
Tick Size
$0.005 per troy ounce ($25.00 per contract) (Settlement $0.001)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 7:25a.m. - 12:25p.m.) (Settles 12:25p.m.) CST
Exchange
COMEX
Point Value
$5,000
Margin/Maintenance
$4,510/4,100
First Notice Date
08/30/19 (13 days)
Expiration Date
09/26/19 (40 days)

Seasonal Chart

Silver Sep '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Sep Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Aug 13, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
85,877 (+7,903)
151,110 (-2,130)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
97,520 (-8,514)
58,251 (+2,049)
Producers - Long / Short
17,831 (+6,781)
70,272 (+842)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
56,158 (+115)
68,950 (-3,979)
Managed Money - Long / Short
78,429 (-10,716)
44,469 (+2,186)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
19,091 (+2,202)
13,782 (-137)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
15.555 +10.07%
on 07/17/19
17.490 -2.10%
on 08/13/19
+1.444 (+9.21%)
since 07/16/19
3-Month
14.350 +19.32%
on 05/28/19
17.490 -2.10%
on 08/13/19
+2.507 (+17.15%)
since 05/16/19
52-Week
14.305 +19.69%
on 09/11/18
17.490 -2.10%
on 08/13/19
+1.973 (+13.02%)
since 08/16/18

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Actionable Levels and Commentary

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 88% Buy with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

The market is approaching overbought territory. Be watchful of a trend reversal.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 17.441
1st Resistance Point 17.281
Last Price 17.122s
1st Support Level 16.996
2nd Support Level 16.871

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52-Week High 17.490
Last Price 17.122s
Fibonacci 61.8% 16.273
Fibonacci 50% 15.898
Fibonacci 38.2% 15.522
52-Week Low 14.305

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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