Stock Index Futures Muted as Investors Digest Bessent’s Tariff Remarks, U.S. ADP Jobs Report Awaited

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.01%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.09% this morning, giving up earlier gains after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a proposed 15% global tariff could take effect this week.

Stock index futures initially moved higher after The New York Times reported on Wednesday that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence used backchannels to reach out to the Central Intelligence Agency a day after the U.S.-Israeli attacks began. However, the report said U.S. officials were doubtful that either the Trump administration or Iran was ready for an off-ramp.

WTI crude gave up earlier gains to trade near $75 a barrel following the report. President Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. would offer insurance guarantees and naval escorts to ensure safe passage for oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, steps aimed at preventing a potential energy crisis caused by the conflict. “This is welcome news, but clearly it won’t happen overnight,” said ING analysts.

Investors are also awaiting the U.S. ADP employment report as well as an earnings report from semiconductor designer Broadcom.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the red. Chip stocks sank, with Micron Technology (MU) slumping about -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and KLA Corp. (KLAC) sliding more than -6%. Also, mining stocks plummeted as gold and silver prices retreated, with Hecla Mining (HL) tumbling over -11% and Coeur Mining (CDE) plunging more than -10%. In addition, MongoDB (MDB) cratered over -22% after the document database company issued weak guidance for FQ1 adjusted EPS and FY27 revenue. On the bullish side, Best Buy (BBY) climbed more than +7% after the electronics retailer reported better-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS. 

New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday that further rate cuts would be appropriate if inflation continues to ease once the bulk of the tariff impact has faded. “If inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive,” Williams said. Speaking at a separate event, Williams said the impact of the Middle East conflict on financial markets had so far been “reasonably muted,” adding that oil prices had risen, though not yet “in a dramatic way.” 

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who had penciled in one rate cut this year, said the attacks on Iran have made him less confident in that outlook. “Now, with the geopolitical events, we need to get a lot more data in,” Kashkari said. He added that the key question for inflation at the moment is how persistent higher energy prices will be.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.3% probability of no rate change and a 2.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.

Today, investors will focus on the U.S. ADP private payrolls report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 50K, compared to the January figure of 22K.

The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the February ISM services index to be 53.5 and the S&P Global services PMI to be 52.4, compared to the previous values of 53.8 and 52.7, respectively.

The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 3.0 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 16.0 million barrels.

Later today, the Fed will release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts, which provides an update on economic conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

On the earnings front, notable companies such as Broadcom (AVGO), Veeva Systems (VEEV), and Okta (OKTA) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.081%, up +0.62%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +1.85% this morning, recovering some ground after the benchmark index notched its worst session since April. Technology stocks led the gains on Wednesday, buoyed by better-than-expected results from ASM International. Healthcare stocks also climbed. In addition, travel and luxury stocks, which had been at the forefront of the recent selloff, rebounded. The gains come after The New York Times reported that Iran had made indirect contact with the U.S. to negotiate an end to the Middle East conflict. A survey released on Wednesday showed that Eurozone services activity grew at a slightly faster pace in February as demand strengthened, though growth remained modest and firms barely increased hiring. Separately, data showed that the Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to a new record low in January, as the bloc continued to demonstrate resilience amid global uncertainty. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a trade embargo on Spain after Madrid refused to allow the U.S. military to use its bases for missions tied to strikes on Iran. However, Spanish stocks reversed early losses and climbed as investors appeared to brush aside President Trump’s threats. In corporate news, Adidas AG (ADS.D.DX) slumped over -7% after the German sportswear group issued below-consensus 2026 operating profit guidance.

Eurozone’s Composite PMI, Eurozone’s Services PMI, Eurozone’s PPI, and Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate were released today.

Eurozone’s February Composite PMI came in at 51.9, in line with expectations.

Eurozone’s February Services PMI stood at 51.9, stronger than expectations of 51.8.

Eurozone’s January PPI rose +0.7% m/m and fell -2.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and -2.7% y/y.

Eurozone’s January Unemployment Rate was 6.1%, stronger than expectations of 6.2%.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.98%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -3.61%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as investors digested mixed PMI data from the country, while the escalating conflict in the Middle East continued to weigh on sentiment. Energy stocks slumped on Wednesday after China’s oil majors simultaneously issued trading-volatility warnings tied to their recent sharp gains. Limiting losses, defense and rare earth stocks advanced. Also, aluminum stocks rose as the metal’s prices extended gains after a smelter in Qatar announced it was suspending operations. An official survey released on Wednesday showed that China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in February, pressured by the impact of a week-long holiday. China’s non-manufacturing PMI, which covers both services and construction activity, showed a modest improvement but also remained in contractionary territory. Private surveys also released on Wednesday were more optimistic than their official counterparts. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI in February expanded at the quickest rate since December 2020, while services activity grew at its fastest pace in 33 months. Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming meeting of the National People’s Congress. The country’s top leadership will present its annual government work report and budget plans at the opening session of the NPC on Thursday, along with the outline of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030. Most analysts expect Premier Li Qiang’s report to outline a growth target of between 4.5% and 5%, while pledging to strengthen consumption and investment in high-tech sectors.

The Chinese February Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, weaker than expectations of 49.1.

The Chinese February Non-Manufacturing PMI arrived at 49.5, weaker than expectations of 49.8.

The Chinese February RatingDog Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.1, stronger than expectations of 50.1.

The Chinese February RatingDog Services PMI came in at 56.7, stronger than expectations of 52.3.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower today, hitting a 1-month low as investors continued to dump risky assets amid the escalating Middle East conflict. Energy, mining, and industrial stocks led the declines on Wednesday. The Nikkei posted its largest daily percentage drop since April 2025. Notably, the benchmark index erased all gains made since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the general election on February 8th. Ma Tieying, senior economist at DBS Group Research, said, “Japan and South Korea are both highly dependent on energy imports, with a significant share of crude oil and LNG sourced from the Middle East.” Ma noted that a sustained rise in energy prices would raise import costs, erode household purchasing power, and increase production expenses for manufacturers, creating a stagflation-like dilemma for policymakers. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that the government is closely monitoring financial markets and stands ready to take decisive action in foreign exchange, including currency intervention. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that the central bank will keep raising interest rates if its economic and price forecasts are realized, while closely monitoring the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Ueda said developments in the Middle East could significantly affect the global economy, including Japan’s, through higher energy costs and market moves. On the economic front, a private survey showed that Japan’s services sector grew in February at its fastest pace in nearly two years, fueled by a surge in business activity. In corporate news, Nidec Corp. climbed over +6% after the release of a long-awaited accounting investigation report eased concerns about the company’s outlook and the risk of a potential delisting. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +76.95% to 53.05.

The Japanese February S&P Global Services PMI remained unrevised at 53.8, in line with expectations.

The Japanese February Household Confidence stood at 40.0, stronger than expectations of 38.2.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Chip stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading as risk sentiment recovers slightly, with Micron Technology (MU) rising over +3% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gaining more than +1%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks climbed in pre-market trading after the price of Bitcoin rose more than +4%. Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +6%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA) is up +6%, and Coinbase (COIN) is up over +5%.

Moderna (MRNA) gained more than +6% in pre-market trading after the vaccine maker said it would pay $950 million to resolve patent litigation with Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences related to its Covid-19 shot.

Ross Stores (ROST) advanced over +6% in pre-market trading after the retailer posted better-than-expected Q4 results and gave solid Q1 and FY27 comparable store sales growth guidance.

GitLab (GTLB) slumped more than -7% in pre-market trading after the provider of software development tools issued disappointing FY27 guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - March 4th

Broadcom (AVGO), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Brown-Forman (BF.A), Okta, Inc. (OKTA), Dycom Industries (DY), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), Bath & Body Works (BBWI), Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), StubHub Holdings (STUB), BillionToOne (BLLN), Webull (BULL), National Vision Holdings (EYE), Genius Sports (GENI), EyePoint (EYPT), Ardent Health (ARDT), Daktronics (DAKT), Janus International Group (JBI), Grocery Outlet Holding (GO), Riskified (RSKD), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), Enhabit (EHAB), SandRidge Energy (SD), Riley Exploration Permian (REPX), Red Violet (RDVT), Ocugen (OCGN), The Real Brokerage (REAX), Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN), Aquestive Therapeutics (AQST), Miller Industries (MLR), Mistras Group (MG), Holley (HLLY), Intrepid Potash (IPI), FRP Holdings (FRPH), ATN International (ATNI), Verastem (VSTM), NACCO Industries (NC), Niagen Bioscience (NAGE), Park-Ohio Holdings (PKOH), Ooma, Inc. (OOMA), European Wax Center (EWCZ), Ring Energy (REI), CompX International (CIX), Hudson Technologies (HDSN), SmartRent (SMRT), Seaport Entertainment Group (SEG), Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN), Sight Sciences (SGHT), NI Holdings (NODK), Global Water Resources (GWRS), OmniAb (OABI), Everspin Technologies (MRAM), MicroVision (MVIS), TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG), Alto Ingredients (ALTO), ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT), ACRES Commercial Realty (ACR), Monroe Capital (MRCC), NCS Multistage Holdings (NCSM), Stabilis Solutions (SLNG).