Stock Index Futures Slip as Trump Picks Warsh for Fed Chair

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.40%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.47% this morning after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair.

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is “central casting,” and he will never let you down,” Trump said on Truth Social. U.S. equity futures and Treasuries pared earlier losses following the announcement, with investors weighing how aggressively Warsh might cut interest rates. Earlier on Friday, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is preparing for the president to nominate Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh, who served as a policymaker from 2006 to 2011, frequently highlighted inflation risks even as others focused on supporting growth and employment during the financial crisis. 

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed. Microsoft (MSFT) plunged about -10% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the technology behemoth’s spending climbed to a record high and cloud sales growth slowed in FQ2, fueling concerns that it may take longer than anticipated for the company’s AI investments to pay off. Also, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) tumbled more than -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 Macau profit. In addition, United Rentals (URI) slumped over -12% after the equipment rental company posted downbeat Q4 results. On the bullish side, Meta Platforms (META) surged over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the social media giant posted upbeat Q4 results and issued strong Q1 revenue guidance.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -1K to 209K, compared with the 206K expected. Also, U.S. Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs were unrevised at +4.9% q/q and -1.9% q/q, respectively, in line with expectations. In addition, the U.S. November trade deficit widened to -$56.8 billion, weaker than expectations of -$43.4 billion. Finally, U.S. factory orders rose +2.7% m/m in November, stronger than expectations of +1.7% m/m.

Meanwhile, President Trump and Senate Democrats have struck a tentative agreement to avert a U.S. government shutdown, as the White House continues talks with Democrats over imposing new limits on immigration raids that have sparked a national outcry.

In tariff news, President Trump on Thursday threatened to slap Canada with a 50% tariff on any aircraft sold in the U.S. and also signed an executive order that would impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or supply oil to Cuba.

Today, investors will focus on the U.S. Producer Price Index for December, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The December reading was originally scheduled for release on January 14th, but was delayed due to the fallout from the longest-ever government shutdown. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. December PPI will stand at +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y, compared to the previous figures of +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y.

The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect December figures to be +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y, compared to November’s numbers of no change m/m and +3.0% y/y.

The U.S. Chicago PMI will be released today as well. Economists forecast the January figure at 43.5, the same as in December.

In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), and SoFi Technologies (SOFI) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.

U.S. rate futures have priced in an 82.6% probability of no rate change and a 17.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.251%, up +0.54%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.66% this morning as investors digest a slew of positive corporate earnings reports and upbeat economic data from the region. Bank stocks outperformed on Friday. At the same time, mining stocks tumbled as precious metal prices pulled back sharply from record highs. The benchmark index is on track to post a weekly loss. Preliminary data from Eurostat released on Friday showed that the Eurozone economy expanded faster than expected in the fourth quarter as consumption and investment gained momentum, offsetting weak exports and uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policy. Notably, the Eurozone economy expanded by 1.5% last year, marking its fastest growth since 2022. Separately, preliminary data from the statistics agency INE showed that Spain’s annual inflation rate eased to a 7-month low in January. In addition, data showed that the Eurozone’s unemployment rate eased for a second straight month in December, matching the record lows seen in late 2024. Investors are now awaiting preliminary inflation data from Germany due later in the day. In corporate news, Adidas AG (ADS.D.DX) climbed over +6% after the German sportswear maker announced a 1 billion euro ($1.2 billion) stock buyback and posted record sales for 2025. Also, Electrolux AB (ELUXB.S.DX) surged more than +14% after the Swedish home appliance maker posted better-than-expected quarterly results.

Spain’s CPI (preliminary), Germany’s Unemployment Change, Germany’s Unemployment Rate, Eurozone’s GDP (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate were released today.

The Spanish January CPI fell -0.4% m/m and rose +2.4% y/y, compared to expectations of -0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y.

The German January Unemployment Change was unchanged, stronger than expectations of 4K.

The German January Unemployment Rate was 6.3%, in line with expectations.

Eurozone’s GDP has been reported at +0.3% q/q and +1.3% y/y in the fourth quarter, stronger than expectations of +0.2% q/q and +1.2% y/y.

Eurozone’s December Unemployment Rate was 6.2%, stronger than expectations of 6.3%.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.96%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -0.10%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today. Losses were broad-based, with gold-related stocks leading the declines after gold prices pulled back sharply from a record high. Sentiment was further dampened after the state-owned Securities Times cautioned against the rally, while regulators, including the Shanghai Gold Exchange, announced new measures such as higher margin requirements to rein in speculation. “For ordinary investors, it’s better to view it rationally rather than blindly chasing higher prices,” the newspaper wrote. The benchmark index posted a modest weekly loss. Meanwhile, China’s finance ministry said on Friday that the nation’s fiscal revenue declined 1.7% in 2025 from a year earlier, the first drop since 2020, as a prolonged property downturn and weak domestic demand weighed on the economy. In other news, Bloomberg reported on Friday that China is considering issuing hundreds of billions of yuan in special government bonds to recapitalize some of its largest insurers, bolstering the biggest players in a sector facing pressure to consolidate. In corporate news, CK Hutchison fell over -4% in Hong Kong after Panama’s Supreme Court ruled against the conglomerate operating two ports on the Panama Canal. Investor focus is now squarely on China’s PMI data for January, scheduled for release over the weekend.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly lower today, dragged down by weakness in the technology sector. Takamasa Ikeda, a senior portfolio manager at GCI Asset Management, said, “Investors sold technology stocks to book profits today.” The Nikkei also followed U.S. futures lower amid speculation that President Trump will nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. The benchmark index notched a second consecutive weekly loss. Government data released on Friday showed that Tokyo’s core inflation eased to a 15-month low in January due to gasoline subsidies and softer food price pressures, offering a fresh data point for the Bank of Japan as it considers the timing of its next rate hike. The data reinforces the BOJ’s view that core inflation will temporarily dip below its 2% target as food price increases fade, before picking up again as steady wage growth supports household purchasing power. Separate data showed that Japan’s retail sales unexpectedly declined in December from a year earlier, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged. Another set of figures released on Friday showed that Japan’s industrial production fell for a second straight month in December, capping off 2025 on a weak note. Meanwhile, yields on shorter-dated Japanese government bonds fell on Friday following strong demand for two-year sovereign notes at a Japanese Finance Ministry auction. In corporate news, Casio Computer surged over +16% after the calculator maker said its full-year net profit could double. Also, Fujitsu climbed over +5% after the computer maker boosted its full-year net profit guidance. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +4.64% to 34.74.

The Japanese January Tokyo Core CPI rose +2.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +2.2% y/y.

The Japanese December Industrial Production (preliminary) fell -0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.4% m/m.

The Japanese December Retail Sales fell -0.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.7% y/y.

The Japanese December Unemployment Rate was 2.6%, in line with expectations.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks fell in pre-market trading, with Alphabet (GOOGL) and Nvidia (NVDA) sliding over -1%.

Western Digital (WDC) fell nearly -3% in pre-market trading as the data storage company’s FQ2 results and FQ3 guidance failed to impress investors.

Sandisk (SNDK) soared more than +20% in pre-market trading after the memory supplier posted upbeat FQ2 results and issued FQ3 guidance that smashed analysts’ expectations.

Tesla (TSLA) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX is weighing a potential merger with Tesla, along with an alternative combination with artificial intelligence firm xAI.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) surged more than +11% in pre-market trading after the owner of shoe brands Ugg and Hoka reported better-than-expected FQ3 results and raised its full-year guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - January 30th

Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), Regeneron Pharma (REGN), Aon (AON), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Canadian National Railway (CNI), Air Products (APD), Imperial Oil (IMO), SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Charter Communications (CHTR), Church&Dwight (CHD), Brookfield Renewable (BEP), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), Franklin Resources (BEN), IES Holdings (IESC), Autoliv (ALV), Janus Henderson (JHG), Brookfield Business (BBU), Flagstar Bank (FLG), Gentex (GNTX), First Hawaiian (FHB), Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB), WisdomTree (WT), Hilltop (HTH), ArcBest Corp (ARCB).