S&P Futures Muted Ahead of FOMC Meeting and U.S. JOLTs Report

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.02% this morning as investors gear up for the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, while also awaiting the delayed reading on U.S. job openings.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed lower. Marvell Technology (MRVL) slumped about -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Benchmark downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and withdrew its price target. Also, Tesla (TSLA) slid more than -3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight. In addition, CoreWeave (CRWV) fell over -2% after the cloud computing firm announced plans to offer $2 billion worth of convertible senior notes due 2031 in a private placement. On the bullish side, Paramount Skydance (PSKY) climbed more than +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share in cash.

The Fed kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. The central bank is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Investors will closely follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for clues on next year’s interest rate path. Market watchers will also scrutinize the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which will offer guidance on how policymakers expect the interest-rate path to unfold over the next few years.

“The tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and accompanying statement will be critical,” wrote Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid. “We expect Powell to emphasize that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility.”

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures for October, set to be released in a couple of hours. Notably, the October JOLTs report will include figures for September. The report will provide investors with additional insight into the health of the U.S. labor market. Economists, on average, forecast that the JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.2 million.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will also be released today. Economists expect the September figure to drop -0.3% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.5% m/m.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Monday it will skip publication of its delayed October PPI report and instead roll those figures into a rescheduled November report set for publication on January 14th.

On the earnings front, notable companies like AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson (FERG), AeroVironment (AVAV), and GameStop Corp. (GME) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

In tariff news, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 5% levy on imports from Mexico, accusing the country of violating a 1944 treaty that obligates it to deliver millions of gallons of water to the U.S.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.162%, down -0.26%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.07% this morning amid investor caution ahead of the Fed’s final interest rate decision of 2025. Financial stocks outperformed on Tuesday. Defense stocks also climbed after Bloomberg News reported that German lawmakers are poised to approve procurement contracts totaling a record 52 billion euros next week. Limiting gains, mining stocks slid. Data from the federal statistics office released on Tuesday showed that German exports unexpectedly rose in October, supported by resilient demand from within the European Union, which helped offset a tariff-driven slowdown in shipments to the U.S. Meanwhile, Eurozone government bond yields retreated on Tuesday after posting their biggest daily rise in months on Monday following comments from European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. The German hawk said she is comfortable with investor expectations that the central bank’s next interest-rate move will be a hike. In corporate news, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA.D.DX) sank more than -8% after the German conglomerate projected a net loss of up to 800 million euros ($931.04 million) for 2026.

Germany’s Exports and Imports data were released today.

The German October Exports rose +0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.2% m/m.

The German October Imports fell -1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

Asian stock markets today closed mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.37%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.14%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today as a key leadership meeting prompted investors to temper their expectations for near-term stimulus. The Politburo, the ruling Communist Party’s top decision-making body, said in a Monday meeting that China will continue to bolster domestic demand and support the broader economy with more proactive policies next year, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. Analysts noted that the most significant change is that top leaders mentioned “cross-cyclical adjustment” for the first time since 2023, in contrast to last year’s emphasis on “extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustment.” Still, Macquarie economist Larry Hu said the Politburo meeting “confirms that policymakers are happy with the current situation and feel no urgency to step up stimulus,” adding that “the size of domestic stimulus [next year] will depend on the strength of exports.” Property, commodity, and consumption stocks led the declines on Tuesday. Chip stocks also retreated due to profit-taking after the U.S. government said it would allow Nvidia to export its H200 AI chips to China. Meanwhile, officials from China’s securities regulator on Tuesday urged a swift expansion of the public real estate investment trust market to help alleviate developers’ liquidity strains and meet investor demand for yield. In corporate news, Ascletis Pharma jumped +18% in Hong Kong after mid-stage trial data for its oral weight-loss drug indicated a potentially best-in-class profile. Investor focus now shifts to China’s November inflation data, scheduled for release on Wednesday, which will provide further insight into the economy’s health. Investors also look ahead to the Central Economic Work Conference later this month, where senior officials will outline their policy priorities and discuss key economic targets for the coming year.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed early losses and closed higher today. Gains in electronics and machinery stocks led the overall market higher on Tuesday. Japanese investors largely shrugged off Monday’s powerful offshore earthquake, which caused only limited damage and did not trigger a massive tsunami despite initial warnings. Meanwhile, yields on 20-year Japanese government bonds hit a record high on Tuesday before retreating slightly, with investors remaining wary of the new government’s fiscal stance while also bracing for higher Bank of Japan policy rates. The five-year JGB yield hovered near a 17-year high after an auction of the notes drew lackluster demand. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that adjusting the degree of monetary easing will help the central bank achieve its inflation target at a time when a tighter labor market is exerting upward pressure on wages and prices. Ueda also said the BOJ would ramp up its government bond purchases if long-term interest rates were to climb sharply, emphasizing that the recent rise in yields has been “somewhat rapid.” Investor attention now turns to the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -1.09% to 28.04.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after President Trump said he would allow the company to export its H200 chip to approved customers in China and other countries in exchange for a 25% surcharge.

Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) jumped more than +38% in pre-market trading after the company agreed to be acquired by a joint venture formed by MW Group and funds affiliated with Blackstone Real Estate and DivcoWest.

Ares Management (ARES) climbed more than +8% in pre-market trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the asset manager would be added to the S&P 500 index on December 11th.

Synopsys (SNPS) gained about +0.7% in pre-market trading after Rosenblatt upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral.

Toll Brothers (TOL) fell over -4% in pre-market trading after the homebuilder reported weaker-than-expected FQ4 earnings and gave cautious FQ1 deliveries guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - December 9th

AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson (FERG), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), AeroVironment (AVAV), Sailpoint (SAIL), GameStop Corp (GME), Core Main (CNM), Campbell’s (CPB), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), BillionToOne (BLLN), Korn Ferry (KFY), Braze (BRZE), Academy Sports (ASO), G-III Apparel (GIII), Cognyte Software (CGNT), Cracker Barrel Old (CBRL), Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY), Caleres (CAL), Designer Brands (DBI), Lakeland Industries (LAKE), Genasys Inc (GNSS), American Outdoor Brands (AOUT), Vince (VNCE).