U.S. Inflation Eases to 3% in September, Strengthening Case for Fed Rate Cut

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.59% this morning after investors digest key U.S. inflation data for clues on the health of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s rate path. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in the latest month, bringing annual inflation to 3%, slightly below economists’ expectations of 0.4% and 3.1%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% on the month and 3% year-over-year, both coming in softer than forecasts and marking a slowdown from the 0.3% monthly gains seen in July and August.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 1.1% chance of no rate change at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

Some positive corporate news is supporting U.S. equity futures, with Intel (INTC) climbing over +5% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted upbeat Q3 results, citing strong demand for PC processors. Also, Ford Motor (F) rose more than +4% in pre-market trading after the automaker reported better-than-expected Q3 results.

Also aiding sentiment, the White House confirmed on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green. Dow Inc. (DOW) surged nearly +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the commodity chemicals producer posted a narrower-than-expected Q3 loss. Also, energy stocks climbed as the price of WTI crude oil rose more than +5%, with APA Corp (APA) rising over +7% and Valero Energy (VLO) gaining more than +6%. In addition, Honeywell International (HON) advanced over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow and Nasdaq 100 after the industrial conglomerate reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results. On the bearish side, Molina Healthcare (MOH) tumbled more than -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the insurer again cut its full-year earnings guidance.

Economic data released on Thursday showed that U.S. existing home sales rose +1.5% m/m to a 7-month high of 4.06 million in September, in line with expectations.

“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Investors will also focus on preliminary U.S. purchasing managers’ surveys. Economists expect the October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 51.9 and the S&P Global Services PMI to be 53.5, compared to the previous values of 52.0 and 54.2, respectively.

The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists anticipate that the final October figure will be revised lower to 54.6 from the preliminary reading of 55.0.

On the earnings front, notable companies like Procter & Gamble (PG), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and General Dynamics (GD) are slated to release their quarterly results today.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 24th day, with no clear signs of compromise between Republicans and Democrats.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.010%, up +0.50%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.18% this morning, erasing earlier gains amid mixed earnings and caution ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data. Utility and real estate stocks underperformed on Friday. At the same time, technology stocks climbed, tracking a tech-led rally on Wall Street. The benchmark index is on track for a second straight weekly gain. A survey released on Friday showed that Eurozone business activity unexpectedly picked up in October, with companies receiving new orders at the fastest pace in 2-1/2 years, signaling that the bloc’s economy gained traction at the start of the fourth quarter. Separately, data showed that U.K. monthly retail sales unexpectedly rose in September, supported by tech stores and higher purchases of gold. In corporate news, Saab AB (SAABB.S.DX) climbed over +7% after the Swedish defence group raised its full-year sales guidance. Also, Natwest Group Plc (NWG.LN) rose more than +2% after the lender posted a 30% increase in Q3 operating profit before tax and boosted its full-year guidance for the second time this year. At the same time, Hiab Oyj (HIAB.H.DX) tumbled over -14% after the Finnish load-handling solutions company warned that U.S. demand was affected by tariffs in the third quarter. Also, Signify NV (LIGHT.NA) slid over -4% after the world’s largest lighting maker reported weaker-than-expected Q3 sales and cut its full-year guidance. In addition, Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY.O.DX) fell more than -3% after missing earnings estimates.

U.K. Retail Sales, U.K. Core Retail Sales, France’s Consumer Confidence, Eurozone’s Composite PMI (preliminary), Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), and Eurozone’s Services PMI (preliminary) data were released today.

U.K. September Retail Sales rose +0.5% m/m and +1.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.2% m/m and +0.6% y/y.

U.K. September Core Retail Sales rose +2.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.7% y/y.

The French October Consumer Confidence stood at 90, stronger than expectations of 87.

Eurozone’s October Composite PMI has been reported at 52.2, stronger than expectations of 51.0.

Eurozone’s October Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0, stronger than expectations of 49.8.

Eurozone’s October Services PMI arrived at 52.6, stronger than expectations of 51.2.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.71%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +1.35%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher and hit a 10-year high today as renewed focus on technological self-reliance at a major political meeting and confirmation of a Trump-Xi meeting boosted sentiment. Semiconductor and AI-related stocks jumped on Friday after China’s Communist Party leadership vowed to “greatly increase” the nation’s scientific and technological self-reliance over the next five years. The communique from the Communist Party’s Central Committee Plenum also highlighted the need to boost domestic demand and improve people’s well-being, though those priorities took a back seat to the technology goals. Although the communique offered few surprises for investors, it reaffirmed Beijing’s commitment to bolstering the technology sector. Goldman Sachs said that prioritizing technology and security in China’s 2026-30 growth strategy underscores Beijing’s long-term focus on achieving “high-quality growth” and “high-level security.” Meanwhile, the benchmark index posted its biggest weekly gain in two months. A White House announcement that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next Thursday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit also injected optimism. Trump said on Thursday regarding his upcoming meeting with Xi, “I think we’re going to come out very well and everyone’s going to be very happy.” Investors will also keep an eye on developments in the U.S.-China trade talks taking place in Malaysia this weekend.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Technology stocks outperformed on Friday. The broad rally was supported by a White House announcement that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea next Thursday. The benchmark index notched a strong weekly gain on optimism surrounding fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi’s new government. Data released on Friday showed that Japan’s core inflation accelerated in September, remaining above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Still, most economists and investors anticipate that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week as it waits for the newly formed Takaichi administration to settle in. Separate data showed that Japan’s manufacturing sector contracted in October at the quickest pace in 19 months amid a steeper drop in new orders, while the services sector continued to expand, though at a slower pace, indicating a further loss of momentum across the private sector. In other news, Japan’s new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that she told U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during their first teleconference that Japan-U.S. relations are “extremely important.” In corporate news, Nidec Corp. fell over -3% after the company withdrew its full-year guidance and announced it would not pay an interim dividend. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -7.22% to 25.44.

The Japanese September National Core CPI rose +2.9% y/y, in line with expectations.

The Japanese October au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) stood at 48.3, weaker than expectations of 48.8.

The Japanese August Leading Index came in at 107.0, weaker than expectations of 107.4.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Intel (INTC) climbed over +8% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted upbeat Q3 results, citing strong demand for PC processors.

Ford Motor (F) rose more than +4% in pre-market trading after the automaker reported better-than-expected Q3 results.

Alphabet (GOOGL) gained over +1% in pre-market trading after Google and Anthropic announced a multibillion-dollar deal that will grant Anthropic access to as many as 1 million Google chips.

Nextracker (NXT) jumped more than +13% in pre-market trading after the company reported stronger-than-expected FQ2 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) plunged over -11% in pre-market trading after the maker of Hoka sneakers and Ugg boots issued disappointing full-year revenue guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - October 24th

Procter & Gamble (PG), HCA Healthcare (HCA), General Dynamics (GD), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Natwest Group (NWG), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Gentex (GNTX), Flagstar Financial (FLG), First Hawaiian (FHB), Stellar Bancorp (STEL), Virtus (VRTS), Southside (SBSI).