Wheat Gains Hold into Tuesday’s Close

The wheat complex extended the recent strength into Tuesday’s close, as escalating tensions in the Black Sea have given a short covering opportunity. Chicago SRW futures were up 2 to 3 cents across the board, pulling back off the midday highs. KC HRW contracts posted gains of 2 ½ to 3 ¼ cents on the session. MPLS spring wheat was up 1 to 1 3/4 cents.

After President Biden gave the greenlight to allow Ukraine to use US long range missiles inside of Russia over the weekend, Ukraine sent some US made ATACMS missiles into Russian border regions overnight.

The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the US winter wheat crop condition ratings improving another 5% at 49% gd/ex, as the Brugler500 index was up 12 points to 338. Ratings in KS were up 6 points, with TX improving 38 points, and OK up 15. The next 7 days does look to dry out in much of the Southern Plains, with parts of SRW country seeing very light totals.

Ukraine’s ag ministry expects to see the 2025 wheat crop up 0.4 million hectares (~1 million acres) from last year, with production expected at 25 MMT, a 3 MMT increase from their current 2024 crop projection. EU soft wheat exports have totaled 8.79 MMT since July 1 as of November 17, which is down 3.87 MMT from the same period last year.

Dec 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.49 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.67 3/4, up 2 cents,

Dec 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.58 1/4, up 3 cents,

Mar 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.69 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $5.86 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.05 1/4, up 1 cent,