Beans Rallied to Back Above $12

Soybean futures are trading about a nickel off the session highs, but still 8 ¼ to 14 cents in the black through Monday. That has most nearby contracts back above the $12 mark, though Sep and Nov remain under the round number. Soymeal futures are currently 90 cents to $1.80 in the black. Soy Oil futures are rallying triple digits with gains of as much as 2.25% so far.  

The weekly Export Inspections data showed 769k MT of beans were shipped during the week that ended 3/21. That was 69k MT more than last week, but was under the 893k MT shipped during the same week last year. The season’s total reached 36.55 MMT, which is now 8.4 MMT behind last year’s pace. 

Ahead of Thursday’s reports, traders are looking for USDA to report soybean stocks at 1.835 bbu. That would be 149 mbu looser yr/yr, as Q2 demand is expected to be 172 mbu below last year. Q1 demand was a 4-yr low when shown in the Jan report. 

Survey respondents are looking for USDA to report soybean acreage intentions at 86.7m acres on average. That would be 3.1m above last year’s area, but is under the 87.5m Outlook Forum assumption. The full range of public estimates is from 84.3m to 89 million acres. 

USDA’s attaché released their preliminary 24/25 estimates for Chinese soybean imports at 103 MMT. That would be down from the 103-105 MMT forecasted for old crop.  The BA Grain Exchange is sticking with their 52.5 MMT soybean crop estimate, with USDA currently at 50 MMT. 

May 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.05 1/2, up 13 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $11.48 1/4, up 13 cents,

Jul 24 Soybeans  closed at $12.17, up 11 1/2 cents,

Nov 24 Soybeans  closed at $11.95 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents,