Wheat Closed Weaker on Monday

Front month wheat futures stayed pushing lower as the corn and bean markets recovered at the day session open The SRW market finished with 9 to 9 ½ cent losses. KC HRW futures finished the first trade day of the week with 8 ½ to 11 cent losses. MGE wheat futures closed the day 7 ¾ to 8 ¾ cent losses. 

Weekly Export Inspections data had 266,269 MT of wheat shipped during the week that ended 2/1. That was down from 284k MT the week prior, and was less than half of the same week last year’s volume. HRS accounted for 118k MT of the total. USDA listed the season’s total shipment at 11.27 MMT, which is still behind the 13.8 MMT pace last year. 

Government reporting had Ukrainian sea exports out of Odesa port at over 20 MMT since August, including 14.3 MMT of grain. Jan’s grain shipment out of Odesa reached 6.3 MMT, which was reportedly on par with pre-war levels. 

Survey respondents expect USDA to tighten the wheat carryout in the Feb WASDE to 647.4 mbu on average. The full range of estimates is from -23 to +25 mbu from the Jan figure. The trade average guess for global wheat carryout is 260.5 MMT, or 500k looser. 

Also on Feb 8th, StatsCan will report Grain Stocks for December. The average trade guess is to see 20.7 MMT of wheat vs 23 MMT last year. The full range of estimates is from 3.5 MMT tighter to 1.1 MMT tighter than Dec ’22.

The US ag attaché raised projected Argentine wheat production to 15.4 MMT vs. the January WASDE number of 15 MMT. 

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.90 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

May 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.99, down 9 cents,

Mar 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $6.14, down 11 cents,

Mar 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.91, down 8 3/4 cents,