Soybeans are up by 0.7% with 7 ½ to 9 ¼ cent gains in early Monday futures action. AM meal prices are 1.6% higher and soybean oil futures are gaining 13 points. Soybeans dropped sharply after the USDA report release, but firmed a little into the close. New crop futures finished the Friday session above the $12/bu mark with 5 to 8 cent losses. The old crop market also firmed up for the close, but were still down by 11 to 12 ¼ cents for the day and 32 cents for the week. Soymeal futures ended the day with $0.10 to $1.50 losses across the front months. March meal was down by nearly $10/ton at the day’s low. Soy oil futures ended the Friday session with 43 to 47 point losses, leaving the March contract at a net 62 point gain for the week.
Chinese Dalian Soybean Prices were 15 to 20 yuan lower on Monday while the US market was closed.
Traders are looking for NOPA members to report between 189 mbu and 193.2 mbu for December’s crush. The average trade guess is to see 193.12 mbu, which would be up 2.2% from November and up 8.8% from Dec ’22.
Commitment of Traders data released after the Friday close showed soybean spec fund traders adding shorts during the week that ended 1/9. That strengthened their net short by 19.6k contracts to 31,248. Commercial soybean hedgers were adding longs during the week, reducing their net short by 14k to 64k contracts.
NASS reduced soybean acreage on Friday but raised yield average yield to 50.6 bpa for a net 36 mbu production increase to 4.165 billion. The average trade guess going into the report called for a 7.2 mbu trim. Expected carryout was raised to 280 mbu. Globally, USDA had cut Brazil’s soybean output by 4 MMT to 157. CONAB had lowered their Brazilian soybean production figure by 4.9 MMT to 155.3 MMT in their January report, and the IGC had Brazil 5 MMT lower at 155. Argentina production was 2 MMT larger to 50 MMT in the USDA data. The Rosario Exchange just hiked their Argentine estimate to 52 MMT.
Mar 24 Soybeans closed at $12.24 1/4, down 12 1/4 cents, currently up 9 cents
Nearby Cash was $11.66 1/2, down 13 1/8 cents,
May 24 Soybeans closed at $12.35 3/4, down 12 1/4 cents, currently up 9 ¼ cents
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.44 1/4, down 11 3/4 cents, currently up 8 ¾ cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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