Soy Futures Mixed for Midday

The midday soybean market is trading +/- 2 cents digesting the USDA reports. Beans had initially spiked higher given the larger than expected yield hit, but it was short lived. Beans were trading 8 to 12 cents lower into the report. Soymeal is mostly lower, but trading within $2/ton of UNCH so far. Soybean Oil futures are down by 40 to 60 points. The updated cash prices were UNCH for old crop beans, but a penny higher for the oil and $5 higher for the meal. New crop cash beans were listed as $12.70, 30 cents higher, with 62 c/lb BO and $380/ton meal. 

USDA data cut soybean yield by 1.1 bpa to 50.9. The average trade guess was to see a 6/10th cut, though the low end was at 50.5. Acreage went unchanged in the report for a net production loss of 95 mbu to 4.205. Old crop imports were upped by 5 and went to stocks and new crop imports were raised by 10 mbu. Thus total new crop supply was listed at 4.496 bbu. The lighter supply pulled 25 mbu out of exports for a 245 mbu carryout. 

At the global level, the WAOB made little changes to the balance sheet – though Chinese import demand was 1 higher to 100 MMT. New crop saw 2.5 MMT production losses, almost exclusively via U.S. Global carryout was 1.6 MMT tighter to 119.4, compared to 120 MMT expected. 

Brazil’s CONAB raised soybean production by 37 MT to 154.6 MMT. USDA is currently using 156 MMT. Rosario Grains Exchange released their preliminary estimates for Argentina’s 23/24 bean production at 48 MMT (1.764 bbu) – up from 20 MMT (735 mbu) this year. 

Sep 23 Soybeans  are at $13.51 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

Nearby Cash   is at $13.23 3/8, up 4 5/8 cents,

Nov 23 Soybeans  are at $13.22, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jan 24 Soybeans  are at $13.31 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents,