Stock Index Futures Gain on Hopes of U.S.-Iran Talks, Retail Sales Data and Warsh Hearing on Tap

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are up +0.35%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +0.40% this morning on hopes for further U.S.-Iran talks that could advance a Middle East peace deal.

U.S. President Donald Trump said talks between the U.S. and Iran could start as soon as Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran informed regional mediators it would send a negotiating team to Islamabad on Tuesday. Separately, a Pakistani official involved in the negotiations told Reuters that momentum was building for talks to resume on Wednesday. Still, Tehran has not yet officially confirmed that it will participate in the Islamabad talks. President Trump warned that if Iran doesn’t make a deal, it will face strikes on its bridges and power plants, adding that it is “highly unlikely” he would extend the ceasefire, which expires Wednesday evening Washington time. The price of WTI crude edged lower on Tuesday.

Stock index futures were also supported by some positive corporate news, with UnitedHealth Group (UNH) climbing over +7% in pre-market trading after the company topped Q1 estimates and raised its FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. Also, GE Aerospace (GE) rose more than +2% in pre-market trading after posting better-than-expected Q1 results.

Market participants are awaiting U.S. retail sales data, more corporate earnings reports, and Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the red. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks slipped, with Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA) falling over -2%. Also, travel stocks slid amid a jump in oil prices, with American Airlines (AAL) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) slumping more than -4%. In addition, Intel (INTC) sank over -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after KGI Securities downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform. On the bullish side, Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbed over +5% after The Information reported that Alphabet’s Google was in talks with the company to develop two custom AI chips.

JPMorgan on Tuesday lifted its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7,600, citing AI and tech-fueled earnings, just weeks after trimming its forecast. The firm expects the index to approach 8,000 by year-end if the Middle East conflict is resolved swiftly.

First-quarter corporate earnings season is gathering pace, and investors await reports from notable companies today, including GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), RTX Corp. (RTX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and 3M Company (MMM). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +12% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee later today in what could be the most closely watched confirmation hearing for a Fed chair nominee in decades. Warsh is reportedly set to vow to protect the central bank’s independence in his prepared remarks. “I believe that monetary policy independence is earned—and better policy decisions crafted—by steering clear of distractions,” Bloomberg reported, citing a copy of his prepared remarks.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Retail Sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that Retail Sales will show a +1.4% m/m jump in March, driven largely by a sharp rise in gasoline spending. That compares with a +0.6% m/m gain a month earlier.

U.S. Core Retail Sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the March figure to climb +1.3% m/m, following a +0.5% m/m increase in February.

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales data will be released today as well. Economists project the March reading to be unchanged m/m after a +1.8% m/m climb in February.

In addition, Fed Governor Christopher Waller is set to deliver a speech later today at a Brookings Institution Event. With Fed officials in a blackout period before the April 28-29 policy meeting, Waller is likely to avoid commenting on the economic outlook or monetary policy.

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% probability of no rate change and a 0.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.26%, up +0.07%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.49% this morning, supported by cautious optimism that peace talks between the U.S. and Iran will go ahead before the two-week ceasefire expires. Despite Iran’s earlier unwillingness to join another round of talks, a Pakistani official involved in the negotiations told Reuters that momentum was building for discussions to resume on Wednesday. Technology stocks led the gains on Tuesday. Financial stocks also gained ground. At the same time, defense, food and beverages, and healthcare stocks fell. The ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday that German investor confidence fell to its lowest level in over three years in April, as firms feel the economic impact of the Middle East conflict far beyond price increases. “Businesses are concerned about long-term shortages of energy supply, and this discourages investment and weakens the effect of government stimuli,” said ZEW President Achim Wambach. Separately, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the U.K.’s unemployment rate declined in the three months through February, though that trend is unlikely to persist as the Middle East conflict increases pressure on firms to curb hiring or reduce headcount. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Tuesday that the central bank needs to exercise caution when setting interest rates amid significant uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. “I believe we need to be cautious, keep a cool head and analyze the data in a context of tremendous uncertainty,” de Guindos said. In corporate news, Royal Unibrew A/S (RBREW.C.DX) cratered over -21% after the Danish beverage company said its partnership with Pepsi traders in northern Europe would come to an end.

U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus, U.K. Unemployment Rate, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index were released today.

U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus stood at 3.6% in the three months to February, stronger than expectations of 3.5%.

The U.K. Unemployment Rate was 4.9% in the three months to February, stronger than expectations of no change at 5.2%.

The German April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at -17.2, weaker than expectations of -6.7.

The Eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index arrived at -20.4, weaker than expectations of -12.7.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.07%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.89%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index erased earlier losses and closed slightly higher today as investors became more optimistic that Iran would participate in talks with the U.S. that could ease tensions in the Middle East. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran informed regional mediators it would send a negotiating team to Islamabad on Tuesday. Chinese President Xi Jinping urged an immediate ceasefire and the resumption of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring Beijing’s concern about the global economic fallout. Coal-related stocks outperformed on Tuesday, providing support to the overall market. The gains came as China might need to burn more fossil fuels this year as meteorologists forecast a moderate-to-strong El Niño event in the summer and autumn, potentially disrupting hydropower operations at a time when fuel supplies from the Middle East are strained. At the same time, data-center cooling stocks sank, dragged lower by a -10% plunge in Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co. after it reported an 82% fall in Q1 profit, raising concerns about intensifying competition. Elsewhere, Fitch Ratings’ China analyst Jeremy Zook said on Tuesday that the nation’s economy remains relatively resilient to the ongoing energy shock, with the risk of supply shortages looking minimal in the near term. In corporate news, Victory Giant Technology’s shares soared about +50% in their Hong Kong trading debut after the Nvidia supplier raised $2.6 billion in the city’s biggest listing of the year.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed higher today, buoyed by easing geopolitical tensions and a revival in the AI trade. Sentiment improved as oil prices fell in Tokyo trading following reports that Iran would send a team to negotiate with the U.S. Technology stocks led the gains on Tuesday. Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG International, said, “AI is back in focus. Asia tech, being a core supplier of hardware, is riding the wave higher amid the overall risk-on environment.” Meanwhile, Japanese government bonds rose on Tuesday amid mounting speculation that the Bank of Japan will refrain from raising interest rates at its policy meeting next week. Reuters reported that the BOJ is likely to hold off raising interest rates next week to allow more time to assess the fallout from the Middle East conflict, though the final decision could be a close call and hinge on developments in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. Elsewhere, the BOJ said in a semi-annual report that Japan’s financial system remains broadly stable, but it is necessary to monitor the impact of developments in the Middle East and the growing activities of foreign non-banks. Investor focus this week is on Japan’s April PMI data, which will offer a timely snapshot of business conditions, as well as the March National Core CPI that will provide early evidence of the pass-through from higher energy prices. The nation’s trade data for March will also draw attention, providing an early indication of external demand. In corporate news, Nojima jumped over +14% following reports that the electronics retailer intends to acquire Hitachi’s consumer appliances unit, Hitachi Global Life Solutions, for more than 100 billion yen ($630.32 million). The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -8.88% to 29.97.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Amazon.com (AMZN) rose over +2% in pre-market trading after the online retailer said it plans to invest an additional $5 billion in Anthropic. The total investment could reach as much as $25 billion if the partnership meets certain milestones.

Intel (INTC) advanced over +2% in pre-market trading after BNP Paribas and HSBC upgraded the stock.

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) gained more than +1% in pre-market trading after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $525 price target.

Apple (AAPL) slipped about -0.5% in pre-market trading after the iPhone maker announced that longtime leader Tim Cook is stepping down and will be succeeded by hardware chief John Ternus.

Alaska Air Group (ALK) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after the air carrier suspended its annual guidance, citing higher fuel costs.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - April 21st

GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), RTX Corporation (RTX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Danaher (DHR), Chubb (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), Northrop Grumman (NOC), 3M Company (MMM), D.R. Horton (DHI), MSCI Inc. (MSCI), Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), EQT Corporation (EQT), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Halliburton Company (HAL), Northern Trust (NTRS), Synchrony Financial (SYF), W. R. Berkley (WRB), Equifax (EFX), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Summit Therapeutics (SMMT), East West Bancorp (EWBC), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Genuine Parts Company (GPC), Equity LifeStyle Properties (ELS), Mueller Industries (MLI), Vicor (VICR), Range Resources (RRC), Agree Realty (ADC), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), Valmont Industries (VMI), Manhattan Associates (MANH), Zurn Elkay Water Solutions (ZWS), Commerce Bancshares (CBSH), Pegasystems (PEGA), Weatherford International (WFRD), JBT Marel (JBTM), Hancock Whitney (HWC), Sonoco Products Company (SON), Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB), Bank OZK (OZK), PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI), United Community Banks (UCB), WesBanco (WSBC), Calix (CALX), National Bank Holdings (NBHC), OFG Bancorp (OFG), Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI), Triumph Financial (TFIN), Forestar Group (FOR), Healthcare Services Group (HCSG), Peoples Bancorp (PEBO), Metropolitan Bank Holding (MCB), PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT), Mercantile Bank (MBWM), Hanmi Financial (HAFC), TrustCo Bank Corp NY (TRST), Orrstown Financial Services (ORRF), Northpointe Bancshares (NPB), Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB), Beta Bionics (BBNX), Capital Bancorp (CBNK), Bridgewater Bancshares (BWB), Southern First Bancshares (SFST), Community Health Systems (CYH), Timberland Bancorp (TSBK), Mayfair Gold (MINE), BCB Bancorp (BCBP).