Sharp Pullback In Soy Oil

Soybeans are down by double digits so far, as soybean oil futures plummet +3 cents/lb in the front months. Bean prices were off their highs at the close on Wednesday, but still higher by 3 to 10 cents in the front months. Preliminary open interest data showed net new buying, up 7,085 contracts. Soybean meal prices stayed near their high for the close, gaining 2.3% to 2.5% in the front months. BO futures worked lower on Wednesday, with the front months closing 1.4% to 1.7% in the red.  There were again zero deliveries overnight against December meal longs. There were 210 put out against BO, all stopped once more by Cargill. 

Weekly Export Sales from the week that ended 11/24 are expected to come in between 550k MT and 1 MMT. New crop bean sales are estimated to be below 100k MT. For soymeal, analysts estimate sales between 150k and 500k MT. BO bookings from the week of 11/24 are expected to be less than 20k MT. 

Analysts estimate the NASS Fats and Oils report on Thursday afternoon will show 195.9 mbu (a 10-mo high) of soybeans were processed during October. The full range of estimates is from 194 to 197.1 mbu. Soy oil stocks are expected to be 2.107b lbs. 

Reports from BAGE had over 560k MT of Argentine farmer soybean sales from the 21/22 crop on Tuesday, citing the new “soy dollar” exchange rate. The rate equates to a ~40% better conversion than the official rate. The 3 day total is likely close to 40 million bushels (we don’t have Wednesday data yet). 

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.69 1/2, up 10 cents, currently down 10 1/4 cents

Nearby Cash Soybeans  were $14.46 1/8 on Wednesday, up 9 1/4 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.75 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents, currently down 10 cents

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.82 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents, currently down 9 3/4 cents