Firmness for Soybean Tuesday

Following the rally to start the week, turnaround Tuesday is amounting to soybean futures holding firm. Futures are fractionally mixed to 2 1/4 cents lower across the front months for midday. The products are weakening with meal down by $3.30 to $5.20/ton and oil 23 to 61 points lower so far. 

Brazil has 87% of soybeans planted according to the AgRural. AgRual estimates their total production at 150.5 MMT. 

Canadian Canola Prices are working $20-$25 (Canadian dollars) per tonne higher through midday. Analyst estimates ahead of StatsCan production data show canola is expected to be between 18.6 MMT and 20.5 MMT – from September’s 19.1 MMT estimate. The average is for a 100k MT boost. Soybean production estimates range 6.3 to 6.8 MTM from 6.5 MTM in September’s report, the average is to see no change.

Indonesia maintained their 8:1 ratio for domestic palm oil to exports. The ratio, limiting exports, went into effect 11/1, and has been renewed for the foreseeable future. Biofuel sector protests began in Brazil after sitting president Bolsonaro vetoed a CNPE decision that would have allowed biodiesel produced “by any technological route of production” to be blended with traditional diesel. Brazil is still capped at a 10% biodiesel blend rate in Q1 of 2023 and expected to go to 15% later. 

Argentina’s government announced a new soybean exchange rate (soy dollar) for export sales effective from 11/28 through 12/31. This is designed to stimulate more export business out of the country.

Jan 23 Soybeans  are at $14.55 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $14.33 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  are at $14.61 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  are at $14.69 3/4, down 1/4 cent,