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Silver Mar '19 (SIH19)

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Silver Futures Market News and Commentary

Precious Metals Close Higher on Dollar Weakness and Dovish BOJ Pledge

Apr Comex gold (GCJ19) on Friday closed up +7.8 (+0.60%) and May silver (SIK19) closed up +0.153 (+1.01%). Dollar weakness gave metals prices a boost Friday along with increased safe-haven demand for precious metals as UK Prime Minister May continues to struggle to get her twice-rejected Brexit deal through the British Parliament. Another positive for precious metals was the action by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) at Friday's policy meeting to maintain its stimulus measures and pledge to keep rates extremely low for an extended period. Gains in precious metals were limited Friday after stocks rallied, which curbed the safe-haven demand for precious metals. Also, weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data signaled reduced demand for industrial metals after Feb U.S. manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1%, and the Mar Empire manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -5.1 to a 1-3/4 year low of 3.7, weaker than expectations of +1.2 to 10.0.Big Picture Gold-Silver Market Factors: Bullish factors include (1) expansive Bank of Japan and European Central Bank monetary policies, although the ECB ended its quantitative easing program in Dec 2018, (2) an easier monetary policy by China's central bank, which cut the bank required reserve requirement ratio by 100 bp on Jan 4, and (3) fund buying of gold as global geopolitical and concerns and stock market volatility have fueled demand for gold as a store of wealth. Bearish factors include (1) strength in the dollar as the dollar index recently rallied to a 1-1/2 year high, (2) tighter dollar liquidity as the Fed draws down its balance sheet, (3) slack inflation pressures after the Feb ISM prices-paid sub-index fell to a 3-year low of 49.4 and after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate recently fell to a 1-1/2 year low, which reduces demand for gold as an inflation hedge, and (4) the slower Chinese economy and US/Chinese trade tensions that dampen Chinese demand for industrial metals.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Silver 5,000-oz
Contract Size
5,000 troy ounces
Tick Size
$0.005 per troy ounce ($25.00 per contract) (Settlement $0.001)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (RTH 7:25a.m. - 12:25p.m.) (Settles 12:25p.m.) CST
Exchange
COMEX
Point Value
$5,000
Margin/Maintenance
$3,630/3,300
First Notice Date
02/28/19
Expiration Date
03/27/19 (9 days)

Seasonal Chart

Silver Mar '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Mar 12, 2019

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Commercials - Long / Short
69,170 (-1,144)
115,431 (-7,124)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
76,183 (-771)
49,101 (+4,668)
Producers - Long / Short
13,648 (+1,732)
49,087 (-2,811)
Swap Dealers - Long / Short
47,787 (-341)
58,609 (-1,778)
Managed Money - Long / Short
51,261 (-3,654)
41,774 (+4,715)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
24,922 (+2,883)
7,327 (-47)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
14.920 +2.23%
on 03/07/19
16.195 -5.82%
on 02/20/19
-0.490 (-3.11%)
since 02/15/19
3-Month
14.615 +4.37%
on 12/19/18
16.200 -5.85%
on 01/31/19
+0.616 (+4.21%)
since 12/14/18
52-Week
13.985 +9.07%
on 11/14/18
17.760 -14.12%
on 04/19/18
-1.641 (-9.71%)
since 03/15/18

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 16% Sell with a Average short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Minimum.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 15.278
1st Resistance Point 15.265
Last Price 15.253s
1st Support Level 15.230
2nd Support Level 15.208

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52-Week High 17.760
Fibonacci 61.8% 16.318
Fibonacci 50% 15.873
Fibonacci 38.2% 15.427
Last Price 15.253s
52-Week Low 13.985

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InsideFutures Commentary

InsideFutures is a twice weekly newsletter that features a selection of the latest and best commodities commentary appearing on Barchart.com. Delivered every Wednesday and Friday morning to your inbox.

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