Soy Mixed but Mostly Lower for Monday Morning

Preliminary OI showed Friday’s soybean rally was mainly net new buying in the November contract and short covering of September at options expiration. Currently soy futures are fading back by double digits in early Monday trading. Soy oil is also lower, though meal rounds out the complex with gains into the day session. Soy futures rallied into the weekend with 1.7% to 4.4% gains. Meal was the strongest of the complex gaining at least 3.4% in the front months on double digit gains to contract highs for the Sep contract. Soybean futures were 24 1/4 to 30 cents higher in the front months, though Sep rallied 52 3/4 cents on the day, leaving $16 calls in the money and exercised into long futures. BO futures were 97 to 173 points higher on the day. 

Data from the CFTC showed soybean spec traders were net long 104,471 contracts as of 8/23. That was up 5k from the prior week mostly driven by net new buying. Commercial bean traders added hedges through the week, with a 19.5k OI increase and a 8,540 contract stronger net short to 145.9k contracts. The CoT report showed managed money firms were 9,454 contracts more net long in meal to 95,718 contracts. In BO, spec traders were 8,973 contracts more net long to 42,208 contracts

Pro Farmer’s official post-Tour soybean estimates were released showing an average yield of 51.7 bpa +/-2%. Their output figure was 4.535 billion bushels (on 500k additional acres), compared to the USDA estimate of 4.531 billion and 4.435 billion bushels last year. 

Sep 22 Soybeans  closed at $16.05 1/4, up 52 3/4 cents, currently down 11 cents

Nearby Cash   was $14.93 ¼ on Friday, up 29 5/8 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.61 1/4, up 30 cents, currently down 15 3/4 cents

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.65 1/2, up 29 1/4 cents, currently down 15 1/2 cents

New Crop Cash   was $14.10 5/8 on Friday, up 30 1/4 cents,