Wheat Red for Close

After gaining through most of the session, wheat markets turned south on Friday afternoon and went into the weekend with double digit losses. Through the week, May SRW futures were down $1.17 3/4 per bushel. Through March, May futures gained 72 cents, but traded within a $3.54 1/4 range. KC wheat prices were in a 40 cent range on Friday, as they went into the weekend 5 to 16 3/4 cents weaker. Spring wheat futures closed the day 5 3/4 to 14 1/4 cents lower. 

Commitment of Traders data showed wheat specs were 72 contracts less net long in SRW futures and options as of the week that ended 3/29. That was from a near equal net new buying v net spec short selling. The funds were 45,310 contracts net long in KC wheat, down by 479 contracts wk/wk. Managed money firms were reported as 217 contracts less net long in spring wheat through the week ending 3/29. 

Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation’s President declared an expected 30% drop in spring grains planted area. Output is estimated to be 40-45% lower yr/yr given fertilizer and fuel constraints. Winter wheat losses are presumed to be less than 20% yr/yr, citing areas where it is not safe for field work given Russian mines and military presence. If the 20% reduction is realized, that would leave 22/23 wheat output near 26.4 MMT – which is still up 3.9% from 2020/21. 

May 22 CBOT Wheat  closed at $9.84 1/2, down 21 1/2 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  was $9.12 1/4, down 25 5/8 cents,

May 22 KCBT Wheat  closed at $10.13, down 16 3/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $9.60 5/8, down 17 1/4 cents,

May 22 MGEX Wheat  closed at $10.65 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents,