S&P Futures Slip as Bond Yields Climb After Jump in Oil, Key U.S. Jobs Report in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending down -0.53% this morning as Treasury yields continued to rise after another surge in oil prices stoked concerns that the Middle East conflict would drive inflation higher.

The 10-year T-note yield rose three basis points to 4.17%. The price of WTI crude climbed more than +5% after data showed maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had come to a near standstill. Also, Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times that the conflict could compel Gulf energy exporters to shut down production within weeks, a move that might push oil toward $150 a barrel. Oil prices initially edged lower after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a temporary measure to ease pressure on oil supply stemming from the conflict.

Investors are now turning their attention to the key U.S. jobs report.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the red. Chip stocks sank, with Analog Devices (ADI) and Lam Research (LRCX) sliding over -3%. Also, airline stocks slumped as crude oil prices continued their advance, with Alaska Air Group (ALK) falling over -9% and Southwest Airlines (LUV) dropping more than -6%. In addition, Corning (GLW) slid over -6% after Broadcom CEO Hock Tan played down the near-term prospects for optical networking in AI data centers. On the bullish side, The Trade Desk (TTD) jumped over +18% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after The Information reported that OpenAI had held early discussions about growing its advertising business with the company.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims was unchanged last week at 213K, compared with the 215K expected. Also, U.S. Q4 nonfarm productivity rose +2.8% q/q, stronger than expectations of +1.9% q/q, and unit labor costs rose +2.8% q/q, stronger than expectations of +2.0% q/q. In addition, the U.S. import price index rose +0.2% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that the central bank’s response to the Middle East conflict will hinge on the duration of its impact on the economy. “Textbook monetary policy would be you look through a short-term shock, but you don’t look through a long-term shock, and I think that’s a lot of the assessment people are going to have to make,” Barkin said. Also, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the labor market is showing further signs of stabilization, signaling she may support holding rates unchanged at the central bank’s next meeting.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.3% chance of no rate change and a 2.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting. Investors currently anticipate just one rate cut by the Fed in 2026, compared with three earlier this year.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that February Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 58K, compared to the January figure of 130K.

Investors will also focus on U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data. Economists expect the February figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y, compared to +0.4% m/m and +3.7% y/y in January.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists forecast that this figure will remain steady at 4.3% in February.

U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data will be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate that retail sales will drop -0.3% m/m and core retail sales will rise +0.1% m/m in January, compared to the previous figures of unchanged m/m for both.

The Fed’s Consumer Credit report will be released today as well. Economists expect the U.S. Consumer Credit to be $12.4 billion in January, compared to the previous figure of $24.05 billion.

In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack throughout the day.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.169%, up +0.51%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.67% this morning, giving up earlier gains as trading remains volatile amid the Middle East conflict. Healthcare stocks sank on Friday, weighed down by a more than -32% plunge in Zealand Pharma A/S (ZEAL.C.DX) after the biotech firm reported weaker-than-expected midstage trial data for an obesity drug candidate it is co-developing with Roche Holding. Limiting losses, defense and energy stocks climbed. The benchmark index is on track to notch its steepest weekly drop in nearly a year. Eurostat said on Friday that Eurozone economic growth was slightly weaker than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, driven by a larger-than-expected contraction in Ireland. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva said on Friday that the central bank is highly unlikely to adjust rates at its next meeting and will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Notably, money markets are now fully pricing in an ECB rate hike this year. Berenberg analysts said that Eurozone GDP growth would slow to 0.7% in 2026 and inflation would rise to 3.1% for the full year in the event of the prolonged Middle East conflict. In other corporate news, Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA.D.DX) rose about +1% after the company reported better-than-expected 2025 results.

Eurozone’s GDP and Eurozone’s Employment Change data were released today.

Eurozone’s GDP came in at +0.2% q/q and +1.2% y/y in the fourth quarter, weaker than expectations of +0.3% q/q and +1.3% y/y.

Eurozone’s Employment Change arrived at +0.2% q/q and +0.7% y/y in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.38%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.62%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, building on the previous session’s gains as investors assessed the nation’s economic outlook. Consumer stocks led the gains on Friday. At the same time, energy and non-ferrous metal stocks slid. Semiconductor stocks also retreated. The benchmark index notched a weekly loss as the Middle East conflict dampened sentiment. Meanwhile, the National People’s Congress opened on Thursday, with policymakers outlining the economic agenda for the year. There were few surprises in the priorities outlined by Chinese Premier Li Qiang, which aligned with expectations of a lowered 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5.0% and renewed pledges to boost consumption. Analysts said there are reasons to view the policy roadmap with optimism as it lays the groundwork for long-term reforms, but caution will persist until policymakers provide concrete details on how they plan to revive consumer confidence. In other news, Huang Yiping, a member of the monetary policy committee at the People’s Bank of China, told Bloomberg on Friday that China’s push to shift its economy toward consumer-led growth will take a long time. “Consumption can only be boosted through a gradual process. You can’t expect that the government does something through macro policy and consumption picks up dramatically,” Huang said. In corporate news, JD.com surged about +10% in Hong Kong after the e-commerce giant posted better-than-feared Q4 revenue and adjusted net profit.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index reversed earlier losses and closed higher at the end of a volatile week. Gains in real estate, technology, and bank stocks led the overall market higher on Friday. Still, the benchmark index posted its sharpest weekly decline in nearly a year as the Middle East conflict rattled financial markets. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the country will work closely with overseas authorities and is prepared to act against market volatility stemming from the Middle East conflict. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino also said the central bank will closely monitor yen moves, as they could affect underlying inflation and shape public expectations for future price trends. “While monetary policy is aimed at price stability and not at controlling currency levels, we recognize that exchange-rate fluctuations are a key factor affecting the nation’s economy and inflation outlook,” Himino said. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose on Friday as investors remained wary that the prolonged Middle East conflict could fuel inflation by pushing up energy costs. In corporate news, Rohm shares were untraded and pinned at the daily upper limit after auto-parts supplier Denso Corp. said it is in discussions with the company over various strategic options. At the same time, Casio Computer slid more than -3% after Nikkei announced that the calculator maker would be removed from the Nikkei 225 index from April 1st. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +28.00% to 41.05.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Most chip stocks fell in pre-market trading, with Lam Research (LRCX) and Micron Technology (MU) dropping more than -1%.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) surged over +10% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted upbeat Q4 results and issued solid Q1 guidance.

The Gap (GAP) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after the clothing retailer reported weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue and comparable store sales growth.

Samsara (IOT) climbed over +11% in pre-market trading after the company posted better-than-expected Q4 results and provided strong FY27 guidance.

Ciena (CIEN) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $355.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - March 6th

Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN), Denison Mines (DNN), Stoke Therapeutics (STOK), Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA), McEwen (MUX), Inhibrx Biosciences (INBX), Cullinan Therapeutics (CGEM), International Tower Hill Mines (THM), Uranium Royalty (UROY), One Liberty Properties (OLP), Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC), Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Foghorn Therapeutics (FHTX), Genesco (GCO), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Silvercrest Asset Management Group (SAMG), Imperial Petroleum (IMPP), America’s Car-Mart (CRMT), MacroGenics (MGNX), AMREP (AXR).