Nasdaq Futures Rally as ASML Provides a Boost, Fed Decision and Big Tech Earnings Awaited

March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are trending up +0.88% this morning as a sharp increase in orders at ASML provided fresh momentum to the AI trade.

U.S.-listed shares of ASML Holding (ASML) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the Dutch chip-equipment maker reported Q4 net bookings that were nearly double analysts’ forecasts and said it expects solid sales growth this year. Chip stocks rallied in pre-market trading following ASML’s results, with Intel (INTC) rising over +6% and Micron Technology (MU) gaining more than +4%. News that China had begun approving purchases of Nvidia’s H200 AI chip by Alibaba and other firms also lifted sentiment.

Investors now look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and U.S. megacap tech earnings.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed, with the S&P 500 notching a new record high. Corning (GLW) jumped over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company announced a multiyear deal worth up to $6 billion to supply Meta Platforms with materials for data center construction. Also, chip stocks climbed, with Micron Technology (MU) rising more than +5% after the company said it will invest an additional $24 billion in Singapore over the next decade to expand its manufacturing capacity. In addition, General Motors (GM) advanced over +8% after the automaker posted better-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS and provided solid FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. On the bearish side, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) cratered more than -19% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the insurer projected a drop in 2026 revenue and as the U.S. government proposed keeping payments to private Medicare plans almost flat next year.

Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to an 11-1/2-year low of 84.5 in January, weaker than expectations of 90.6. Also, the U.S. November S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. rose +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.2% y/y. In addition, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose to -6 in January, slightly weaker than expectations of -5.

“Given this latest data, expect the unemployment rate to rise. This will weigh on retail sales in [the] coming months,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial. 

Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% following three consecutive cuts at the end of 2025. This is likely to intensify President Trump’s frustration, as he is pushing for interest rates to be cut. Investors will closely watch Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for any signals on when rates could be cut again. “We expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell to emphasize that future rate moves will depend on how the economic data evolve,” HSBC economists said in a note. U.S. rate futures currently fully price in a 25-basis-point rate cut in July, with a meaningful chance of another reduction by the end of the year.

Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season kicks into full gear. Investors will be closely monitoring earnings reports today from a trio of the Magnificent Seven companies—Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA). The Magnificent Seven companies are expected to deliver 20% profit growth in Q4, which would be the slowest pace since early 2023, adding pressure on the members of the group to demonstrate that the massive capital expenditures they’ve committed are beginning to generate more meaningful returns. Prominent companies like Lam Research (LRCX), International Business Machines (IBM), GE Vernova (GEV), AT&T (T), ServiceNow (NOW), and Starbucks (SBUX) are also scheduled to release their quarterly results today.

On the economic data front, investors will focus on the EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be -0.2 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 3.6 million barrels.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.248%, up +0.59%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.10% this morning, snapping a two-day winning streak as investors digest fresh corporate earnings reports. Luxury stocks led the declines on Wednesday, with LVMH (MC.FP) sliding over -7% after the Louis Vuitton and Tiffany owner reported weak sales growth for the holiday quarter and CEO Bernard Arnault struck a cautious tone on the year ahead. At the same time, technology stocks climbed, led by a more than +5% gain in ASML Holding (ASML.NA) after the chip-equipment maker posted Q4 net bookings that exceeded even the highest expectations. A survey released on Wednesday showed that sentiment among German consumers is poised to improve in February, supported by a sharp rise in income expectations following a minimum wage increase at the start of the year, along with easing inflation fears. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that the central bank is closely watching how the dollar’s weakness could affect Eurozone inflation and would adjust monetary policy as needed. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher told the Financial Times that the central bank may have to consider another interest rate cut if continued strength in the euro starts to weigh on its inflation outlook. “If the euro appreciates further and further, at some stage this might create, of course, a certain necessity to react in terms of monetary policy,” Kocher said. Investor focus is now squarely on major U.S. tech earnings and the Fed’s monetary policy decision.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index was released today.

The German February GfK Consumer Climate Index came in at -24.1, stronger than expectations of -25.5.

Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.27%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.05%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today, extending gains from the previous session. Non-ferrous metal stocks jumped on Wednesday as gold prices reached a record high above $5,300 an ounce. AI-related and energy stocks also advanced. China’s yuan hit a fresh 32-month high against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after Beijing guided the currency higher as global greenback selling intensified and Chinese exporters’ seasonal settlement demand persisted. In other news, Reuters reported on Wednesday that China has cleared the import of the first batch of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, signaling a shift in stance as Beijing looks to balance its AI needs with efforts to foster domestic development. In corporate news, China Vanke rose over +2% after holders of two yuan-denominated bonds approved the troubled property developer’s plan to defer repayments by a year. Also, snack retailer Busy Ming Group surged +69% in its Hong Kong trading debut after raising $470 million in an offering. Investors are awaiting China’s PMI data for January, scheduled for release over the weekend.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed slightly higher today, boosted in the final half-hour of trading by technology stocks. The Nikkei had languished with losses of as much as 1% throughout the session as a sharply stronger yen weighed on export-oriented stocks. However, the benchmark index reversed those losses as technology stocks rallied after chipmaking equipment supplier ASML reported Q4 net bookings that exceeded even the highest expectations. Also aiding sentiment, Japanese government bonds climbed on Wednesday after the Finance Ministry’s auction of 40-year sovereign debt attracted strong demand. Meanwhile, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s December meeting released on Wednesday showed that BOJ policy board members weighed growing inflationary pressures from a weak yen and labor shortages, among other factors, as key considerations for the timing of further rate hikes. “With firms’ behavior shifting more toward raising wages and prices, the yen’s depreciation would more likely push up prices through factors such as rising import prices,” some members said. The minutes showed that some BOJ board members flagged the possibility that rising import prices could affect underlying inflation by shaping inflation expectations. The nine-member board agreed that any further rate increases would depend on economic conditions and inflation forecasts materializing. Daiwa Securities economists said in a note that the BOJ could raise its policy rate again in the April-June period. In corporate news, SoftBank Group rose over +3% after The Wall Street Journal reported that the technology investment firm was in talks to invest up to $30 billion more in OpenAI. Investor attention for the remainder of the week is on a raft of Japan’s economic data, including Tokyo core CPI, industrial production, retail sales, and employment figures. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +0.56% to 34.33.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

U.S.-listed shares of ASML Holding (ASML) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the Dutch chip-equipment maker reported Q4 net bookings that were nearly double analysts’ forecasts and said it expects solid sales growth this year.

Chip stocks rallied in pre-market trading following ASML’s stellar results, with Intel (INTC) rising over +6% and Micron Technology (MU) gaining more than +4%.

Nvidia (NVDA) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after Reuters reported that China has cleared the import of the first batch of the company’s H200 AI chips.

Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) jumped more than +10% in pre-market trading after the hard-disk-drive maker posted upbeat FQ2 results, issued above-consensus FQ3 guidance, and CEO Dave Mosley highlighted a spike in demand from AI data centers.

Texas Instruments (TXN) gained over +6% in pre-market trading after the semiconductor company provided solid Q1 guidance.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Wednesday - January 28th

Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCX), IBM (IBM), Amphenol (APH), GE Vernova (GEV), Danaher (DHR), AT&T (T), ServiceNow (NOW), Starbucks (SBUX), ADP (ADP), General Dynamics (GD), Corning (GLW), Waste Management (WM), Elevance Health (ELV), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP), United Rentals (URI), MSCI (MSCI), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Celestica Inc. (CLS), Raymond James Financial (RJF), Fair Isaac (FICO), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), CH Robinson (CHRW), CGI Inc (GIB), Lennox (LII), Textron (TXT), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), Stifel (SF), Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI), Equity Lifestyle (ELS), SEI (SEIC), Tetra Tech (TTEK), New Oriental Education&Tech (EDU), Levi Strauss (LEVI), Axis Capital (AXS), VF (VFC), National Fuel Gas (NFG), Littelfuse (LFUS), Prosperity Bancshares (PB), Brinker (EAT), Landstar (LSTR), Meritage (MTH), Badger Meter (BMI), Plexus (PLXS), Whirlpool (WHR), Viavi Solutions (VIAV), Murphy Oil (MUR), Avnet (AVT), Adtalem Education (ATGE), First Interstate BancSystem (FIBK), Calix (CALX), Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG), Liberty Oilfield (LBRT), M/I Homes (MHO), SL Green (SLG), Hawkins (HWKN), First Financial Bancorp (FFBC), LendingClub (LC), Beacon Financial (BBT), Extreme (EXTR), Cimpress NV (CMPR), Century Communities (CCS), CONMED (CNMD), Navient (NAVI), Deluxe (DLX), Univest (UVSP), Central Pacific Financial (CPF), Ethan Allen Interiors (ETD), Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO), Washington Trust (WASH), GBank Financial Holdings (GBFH), Colony Bankcorp (CBAN), First Community (FCCO).