S&P Futures Muted as Investors Weigh JPMorgan Earnings, U.S. Inflation Data in Focus

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending down -0.08% this morning as investors digest an earnings report from JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank by assets, with the focus now turning to key U.S. inflation data.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rose about +0.5% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results and providing a solid 2026 net interest income outlook.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 notching a new record high. Shares of data storage companies advanced, with Western Digital (WDC) rising more than +5% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) gaining over +5%. Also, Walmart (WMT) rose +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Nasdaq Global Indexes announced that the stock would join the Nasdaq 100 Index on January 20th, replacing AstraZeneca. In addition, DexCom (DXCM) climbed more than +5% after the maker of glucose monitors reported better-than-expected preliminary Q4 revenue. On the bearish side, credit card companies and bank stocks sank after President Trump called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, with Synchrony Financial (SYF) slumping over -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Capital One Financial (COF) sliding more than -6%.

“The bull market still has legs, and it’s entirely possible that we see further gains irrespective of what happens with internal and external policy,” said Giuseppe Sette at Reflexivity.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Monday that interest rates are “well-positioned” to stabilize the labor market and return inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. Speaking to reporters after his speech, Williams stressed that the Fed’s independence from political interference had delivered “huge dividends in terms of helping keep inflation in check.”

U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.0% chance of no rate change and a 5.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the January FOMC meeting.

On the trade front, President Trump said on Monday that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on trade with the U.S.

Meanwhile, a group of central banks released a statement on Tuesday in support of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The statement was issued by the heads of the European Central Bank and their counterparts in the U.K., Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Australia, Canada, South Korea, and Brazil. “We stand in full solidarity with the Federal Reserve System and its Chair Jerome H. Powell. The independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial, and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that we serve,” the statement said.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. December CPI will come in at +2.7% y/y, unchanged from November. Also, the U.S. core CPI is expected to be +2.7% y/y in December. That is slightly higher than the 2.6% annual increase in November, which was the smallest since early 2021. On a monthly basis, economists forecast 0.3% increases in both headline and core consumer prices.

“While this is the final CPI print ahead of the late-January FOMC meeting, it is unlikely to alter Fed policy,” according to ADSS’ Neal Keane. “Today’s CPI may, however, influence expectations for the remainder of the year, with markets currently pricing two further cuts in 2026.”

A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that 33% of investors expect a “risk-on” market reaction to the CPI report, 45% see it as “mixed/negligible,” and just 21% anticipate a “risk-off” response.

U.S. New Home Sales data for October will also be released today. The report was originally scheduled for release on November 26th, but was delayed due to the fallout from the longest-ever government shutdown. Notably, the release will also incorporate the September figures. Economists expect October’s new home sales to be 716K.

In addition, market participants will parse comments today from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.197%, up +0.26%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.09% this morning, wavering between small gains and losses as investors await key U.S. inflation data. Technology and bank stocks outperformed on Tuesday. At the same time, construction stocks slumped, with Sika AG (SIKA.Z.EB) sliding over -7% after it cut its full-year earnings margin guidance. Eurostat said on Tuesday that the Eurozone’s saving rate declined in the third quarter of last year, helping support the economy as spending gradually recovered. The household saving rate fell to 15.1% from 15.4% in the second quarter, the data showed. Meanwhile, investors continue to keep a close eye on geopolitical risks surrounding Greenland and Iran, along with concerns about the Fed’s independence. In other corporate news, Orsted As (ORSTE.C.DX) climbed over +4% after a federal judge in the U.S. ruled that work could resume at the company’s Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island. Also, Diageo Plc (DGE.LN) rose more than +1% after Bloomberg News reported that the company was considering options for its China assets, including a potential sale.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.64%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +3.10%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, retreating from a 10-year high as investors decided to take some profits. Defense and chip stocks led the declines on Tuesday. Also, shares of companies linked to commercial rocket production slumped after they warned that a recent rally had run ahead of underlying fundamentals. Meanwhile, turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges climbed to another record of 3.65 trillion yuan ($523 billion) on Tuesday, indicating the market may be overheating. In other news, China said late on Monday that it opposed “any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction” after U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that countries doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on U.S. trade. In corporate news, chipmaker GigaDevice Semiconductor jumped +38% in its Hong Kong trading debut after raising $600 million in an offering, highlighting growing investor interest in China’s AI-related stocks. Also, WuXi AppTec surged over +8% in Hong Kong after the biopharma firm guided for a substantial increase in its full-year net profit. Investors are awaiting China’s trade and credit lending data for December, due later this week, which will provide further clues on the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher today, hitting a new record high amid speculation that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may soon call a snap election. Kyodo News agency reported on Tuesday that Takaichi told a ruling party executive of her intention to dissolve parliament’s lower house at the start of its regular session, paving the way for a snap election. Automobile stocks led the gains on Tuesday as the yen weakened to its lowest level against the dollar since July 2024 amid speculation that a snap election would lead to increased fiscal spending and faster inflation. A weaker yen boosts the value of overseas earnings for Japan’s heavyweight exporters. Electronics, defense, and financial stocks also jumped. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields surged. Tuesday’s market reaction echoes last year’s stock-buying, bond-selling trend that followed Takaichi’s appointment as prime minister. Expectations that Takaichi could strengthen her mandate through an election have reignited the so-called “Takaichi trade.” Kazuhiro Sasaki, head of research at Phillip Securities Japan, said, “If a vote does go ahead, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Nikkei rise to 59,000-61,000 this year.” On the economic front, data showed that Japan’s current account surplus widened in November, reflecting a larger surplus in the goods trade balance. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +9.40% to 28.85.

The Japanese November Current Account n.s.a. stood at 3.674 trillion yen, stronger than expectations of 3.594 trillion yen.

The Japanese December Economy Watchers Current Index came in at 48.6, weaker than expectations of 48.7.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Arm Holdings (ARM) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after BofA downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

Synopsys (SNPS) dropped more than -2% in pre-market trading after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $520.

United Parcel Service (UPS) slid nearly -1% in pre-market trading after BNP Paribas downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral with an $85 price target.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rose about +0.5% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results and providing a solid 2026 net interest income outlook.

Intel (INTC) rose over +3% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained more than +1% in pre-market trading after KeyBanc upgraded both stocks to Overweight from Sector Weight with respective price targets of $60 and $270.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - January 13th

JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of New York (BK), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Concentrix (CNXC), Phoenix Education Partners (PXED), Park Aerospace (PKE), Concrete Pumping (BBCP).