Progressive Corporation's Quarterly Earnings Preview: What You Need to Know

The Progressive Corporation (PGR), headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio, operates as an insurance holding company. Valued at $124.4 billion by market cap, the company provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services. The leading property & casualty insurance company is expected to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 on Wednesday, Jan. 28.

Ahead of the event, analysts expect PGR to report a profit of $4.46 per share on a diluted basis, up 9.3% from $4.08 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company beat the consensus estimates in two of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on two other occasions. 

For the full year, analysts expect PGR to report EPS of $17.97, up 27.9% from $14.05 in fiscal 2024. However, its EPS is expected to decline 8.2% year over year to $16.49 in fiscal 2026. 

PGR stock has underperformed the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 16.2% gains over the past 52 weeks, with shares down 11.4% during this period. Similarly, it underperformed the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLF) 16.4% gains over the same time frame.

On Oct. 15, 2025, PGR shares closed down by 5.8% after reporting its Q3 results. Its revenue stood at $22.5 billion, up 14.2% year over year. The company’s EPS grew 12.1% from the year-ago quarter to $4.45. 

Analysts’ consensus opinion on PGR stock is moderately bullish, with a “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Out of 25 analysts covering the stock, seven advise a “Strong Buy” rating, two suggest a “Moderate Buy,” 15 give a “Hold,” and one recommends a “Moderate Sell.” PGR’s average analyst price target is $262.84, indicating a potential upside of 23.8% from the current levels.