Stocks Muted Before the Open as Rally Pauses, U.S. Jobless Claims Data on Tap

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.02%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.01% this morning, taking a breather after recent gains, while investors look ahead to U.S. jobless claims data, which will offer fresh insight into the labor market ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Higher bond yields today are weighing on stock index futures. The 10-year T-note yield rose two basis points to 4.08% on negative carryover from a surge in 10-year Japanese bond yields to the highest level since July 2007 after Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December and that the Japanese government is expected to tolerate the decision.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the green. Microchip Technology (MCHP) surged over +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor company raised its FQ3 guidance to the upper end of previous ranges. Also, Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbed more than +7% after the custom semiconductor firm projected stronger-than-expected growth in its data-center segment next year. In addition, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) jumped over +15% after the clothing retailer posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its Q4 operating income guidance. On the bearish side, Pure Storage (PSTG) plummeted more than -27% after the data storage company reported weaker-than-expected Q3 GAAP EPS.

The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell -32K in November, weaker than expectations of +5K. Also, U.S. September industrial production rose +0.1% m/m, in line with expectations, while manufacturing production was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m. In addition, the U.S. import price index was unchanged m/m in September, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m. At the same time, the U.S. ISM services index unexpectedly rose to 52.6 in November, stronger than expectations of 52.0.

“The faltering labor market will be the focus for the Fed at their December meeting,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial. “Since earlier this year, when we started to see a material weakening in the jobs market, I have believed labor demand is weak enough for the Fed to cut, including this month.”

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 10.8% chance of no rate change at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 219K, compared to last week’s number of 216K.

Also, investors will monitor earnings reports from several notable companies, with Kroger (KR), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), and Dollar General (DG) scheduled to report their quarterly results today.

In addition, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is set to deliver a speech later today at the Florida Bankers Association Leadership Luncheon. With Fed officials in a blackout period before the December 9-10 policy meeting, Bowman is likely to avoid commenting on the economic outlook or monetary policy.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.080%, up +0.54%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.39% this morning as risk appetite improves amid optimism over a Fed rate cut next week. Automobile stocks led the gains on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed cutting fuel economy standards. Also, Bank of America upgraded its views on automakers, including Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Porsche SE. Industrial stocks also advanced, with Schneider Electric SE (SU.FP) and Siemens Energy AG (ENR.D.DX) rising more than +2% after JPMorgan upgraded both stocks to Overweight from Neutral. In addition, semiconductor stocks climbed following reports that Chinese chipmaker Cambricon plans to triple chip production to replace Nvidia in China’s AI market, boosting the demand outlook for chip equipment and materials. At the same time, utilities and healthcare stocks underperformed. Meanwhile, data from Eurostat released on Thursday showed that the Eurozone’s monthly retail sales were unchanged in October, indicating that households remain cautious about spending. Investors are also keeping an eye on developments in the Ukraine peace talks, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner set to meet top Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov in Florida later today. In other corporate news, Kon.Philips N.V. (PHIA.NA) slid over -8% after Citigroup analysts pointed to tariff and China-related headwinds for 2026.

Eurozone’s Retail Sales data was released today.

Eurozone’s October Retail Sales were unchanged m/m and rose +1.5% y/y, compared to expectations of no change m/m and +1.4% y/y.

Asian stock markets today settled mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.06%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +2.33%. 

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly lower and hit a 1-week low today amid a lack of market-moving catalysts. Liquor and consumer stocks underperformed on Thursday. Limiting losses, semiconductor and other AI-related stocks advanced. Investors are awaiting the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference later this month. China’s leadership is expected to outline key policy priorities for the world’s second-largest economy in 2026 and may signal whether additional stimulus is on the horizon. Government advisers and analysts said China is likely to maintain its current annual economic growth target of around 5% next year, a goal that would require authorities to continue providing fiscal and monetary support as they work to break a deflationary trend. Nomura analysts said in a note that Beijing will likely focus on fiscal expansion to address the ongoing slowdown, given the limited room for conventional monetary policy. Nomura expects China to ramp up fiscal measures in the spring of 2026. In other news, Fitch Ratings raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 4.8% but anticipates expansion of only 4.1% in 2026. In corporate news, InnoScience (Suzhou) Technology climbed about +5% in Hong Kong after announcing a strategic cooperation agreement with ON Semiconductor.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply higher and hit a 3-week high today. Industrial-robot stocks led the gains on Thursday on expectations that physical AI will drive future growth. Fanuc’s announcement earlier this week that it will partner with Nvidia to improve industrial robots with AI technology has sparked renewed optimism in the sector. Kazuaki Shimada, chief strategist at IwaiCosmo Securities, said, “The market focus has shifted to robotics-related shares from chip stocks. This means investors keep looking for new themes.” Japanese equities were also supported by overnight gains on Wall Street. Meanwhile, Japan’s 30-year government bond auction on Thursday attracted the strongest demand since 2019, indicating that investors are finally returning due to higher yields. Together with a solid 10-year auction on Tuesday, the results offer some relief to the market preparing for a Bank of Japan rate hike. Reuters reported on Thursday that the BOJ is likely to raise interest rates in December and that the Japanese government is expected to tolerate the decision. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday that there is uncertainty over how far the central bank can raise interest rates because the country’s neutral interest rate is difficult to estimate. “Unfortunately, the neutral rate of interest is a concept for which we can only produce an estimate with quite a wide range,” Ueda told parliament. In other news, foreign investors bought a net 655.6 billion yen ($4.22 billion) worth of Japanese stocks in the week to November 29th, buying tech shares on expectations of a Fed rate cut and bank stocks on prospects of a potential BOJ rate hike, according to data from the Ministry of Finance. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +1.52% to 28.12.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

UiPath (PATH) climbed more than +8% in pre-market trading after the automation software maker posted upbeat Q3 results and issued solid Q4 revenue guidance.

Salesforce (CRM) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after the customer-relationship management platform posted better-than-expected Q3 adjusted EPS and raised its full-year guidance.

Meta Platforms (META) gained about +0.8% in pre-market trading after Arete upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $718 price target.

Snowflake (SNOW) slumped more than -8% in pre-market trading as the cloud storage company’s Q4 product revenue guidance disappointed investors.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) fell over -1% in pre-market trading after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - December 4th

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank (CM), Kroger (KR), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Dollar General (DG), Samsara (IOT), Cooper (COO), Brown Forman A (BFa), DocuSign (DOCU), Rubrik (RBRK), Hormel Foods (HRL), Donaldson (DCI), ServiceTitan (TTAN), BETA Technologies (BETA), SentinelOne (S), BRP Inc (DOOO), Argan (AGX), Science Applications (SAIC), John Wiley&Sons (WLY), Up Fintech (TIGR), IDT (IDT), REX American Resources (REX), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW), Stitch Fix (SFIX), Domo (DOMO), Zumiez (ZUMZ), Smith & Wesson (SWBI), Genesco (GCO), Americas Car-Mart (CRMT).