Stock Index Futures Plunge on Fed Rate-Cut Doubts and Valuation Concerns

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.97%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -1.29% this morning, pointing to further losses on Wall Street as worries over stretched tech valuations persisted and investors questioned whether the Federal Reserve was still on track to cut rates in December.

In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed sharply lower. The Magnificent Seven stocks sank, with Tesla (TSLA) slumping over -6% and Nvidia (NVDA) falling more than -3%. Also, chip stocks slid, with Intel (INTC) and Lam Research (LRCX) dropping over -5%. In addition, Walt Disney (DIS) plunged more than -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the entertainment giant posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 revenue. On the bullish side, Cisco Systems (CSCO) rose over +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow and Nasdaq 100 after the networking-equipment company reported better-than-expected FQ1 results and raised its full-year guidance.

“The question now is whether the market’s recent exuberance has run its course. After a stellar rally since April, technology shares look increasingly overvalued and overstretched, with sentiment tempered by a lack of fresh catalysts and a lull in economic data,” according to Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.

U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation to end the longest shutdown in U.S. history late on Wednesday. The government reopening removes one source of investor uncertainty, paving the way for the release of delayed economic data, including the September jobs report, as early as next week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to issue a calendar in the coming days outlining new release dates for delayed data. President Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, told Fox News’ America’s Newsroom on Thursday that the October jobs report will be published without an unemployment rate reading. The data will be critical in shaping interest rate-cut expectations ahead of the Fed’s December meeting. 

Stubbornly high inflation and the weakening labor market are deepening the divide among Fed officials over the best path forward for interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday she remains focused on price stability even as the labor market weakens, emphasizing that reaching the central bank’s 2% inflation target is essential. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said it is too early to determine whether policymakers should cut rates in December. In addition, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said policymakers should proceed cautiously with further rate cuts while inflation remains above the central bank’s target. Finally, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he did not support the last rate cut, though he remains undecided on the appropriate course of action for the December policy meeting.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 49.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 50.4% chance of no rate change at December’s policy meeting.

On the trade front, a senior Trump administration official told reporters Thursday that the U.S. will eliminate tariffs on bananas, coffee, beef, and select apparel and textile goods under framework agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador, as part of efforts to address elevated food prices.

Today, investors will focus on speeches from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.114%, up +0.41%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -1.04% this morning as worries over stretched tech valuations and uncertainty about the path of U.S. interest rates continued to weigh on sentiment. Bank stocks underperformed on Friday. Technology stocks also slumped, echoing global weakness in the sector. Still, the benchmark index is on track to post its biggest weekly gain since late September. Eurostat said in an update on Friday that the Eurozone’s gross domestic product growth for the third quarter stood at 0.2%, in line with a preliminary estimate. Separately, final data showed that Spain’s annual inflation rate accelerated slightly in October, in line with the preliminary reading, while France’s annual inflation rate eased more than expected in the prior month. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported that U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves dropped plans to raise income tax rates in the upcoming budget, sparking questions about how she will make up for the revenue shortfall. In other news, European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic said on Friday that the bloc’s new economic package, set to be proposed in early December, will include export controls. In corporate news, Siemens Energy AG (ENR.D.DX) surged over +10% after the German energy company posted better-than-expected FQ4 orders and raised its financial targets for fiscal 2028. Also, Richemont (CFR.Z.EB) climbed more than +7% after the luxury group reported upbeat quarterly sales.

France’s CPI, Spain’s CPI, Eurozone’s GDP (second estimate), and Eurozone’s Employment Change (preliminary) data were released today.

The French October CPI rose +0.1% m/m and +0.9% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.1% m/m and +1.0% y/y.

The Spanish October CPI rose +0.7% m/m and +3.1% y/y, in line with expectations.

Eurozone GDP came in at +0.2% q/q and +1.4% y/y in the third quarter, compared to expectations of +0.2% q/q and +1.3% y/y.

Eurozone Employment Change arrived at +0.1% q/q in the third quarter, in line with expectations.

Asian stock markets today settled in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -0.97%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -1.77%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, retreating from the 10-year high reached in the previous session. AI-related stocks tumbled on Friday, tracking a Wall Street sell-off in Nvidia and other AI heavyweights that was sparked by uncertainty over a Fed rate cut in December and worries about stretched tech valuations. Sentiment was further dampened by data showing signs of weakness in China’s economy. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s industrial production and retail sales posted their slowest growth in over a year in October, while fixed-asset investment registered a record decline over the first 10 months of the year. Separately, data showed that China’s new home prices dropped at the quickest monthly pace in a year in October, underscoring persistently weak demand in the property sector. “The economy is facing quite a few challenges given the multiple unstable and uncertain factors in the external environment and rather big pressure on economic restructuring within the country,” the NBS said in a statement. It added that policymakers would “actively facilitate the implementation” of existing policies, likely suggesting that Beijing is not yet in a rush to deliver additional support for the economy. Meanwhile, the benchmark index posted a modest weekly loss. In other news, Reuters reported that Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, has requested approval to resign. In corporate news, JD.com slumped over -6% in Hong Kong after the Chinese e-commerce giant’s quarterly net profit was weighed down by substantial spending on its food delivery arm and other new businesses.

The Chinese October Industrial Production rose +4.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.5% y/y.

The Chinese October Retail Sales rose +2.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.7% y/y.

The Chinese Fixed Asset Investment fell -1.7% y/y in the January-October period, weaker than expectations of -0.9% y/y.

The Chinese October Unemployment Rate was 5.1%, stronger than expectations of 5.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower today, tracking a tech-led selloff on Wall Street overnight as doubts over Fed rate cuts and lofty tech valuations dampened sentiment. Chip stocks led the declines on Friday. Despite Friday’s drop, the benchmark index notched a modest weekly gain. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi criticized companies on Friday for prioritizing shareholders too heavily while not doing enough to raise wages. “I think there has been a trend of too much focus on shareholders. I will revise the corporate governance code to encourage companies to appropriately distribute resources not just to shareholders but to employees,” she said. Takaichi’s remarks tempered investor expectations that she might double down on Shinzo Abe’s shareholder-friendly approach. In other news, foreign investors offloaded $2.3 billion worth of Japanese equities in the week through November 7th, marking their first net selling in six weeks, according to data from Japan Exchange Group. In corporate news, Kioxia Holdings tumbled about -23% after the NAND memory maker’s forecast for the current quarter missed lofty expectations. At the same time, Tokyo Tatemono surged more than +10% after the property developer raised its full-year profit guidance. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +13.60% to 31.23.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

The Magnificent Seven stocks slipped in pre-market trading, with Tesla (TSLA) sliding over -3% and Nvidia (NVDA) falling more than -2%.

Chip stocks fell in pre-market trading, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropping more than -2%.

Applied Materials (AMAT) slid over -5% in pre-market trading as the chip equipment maker’s quarterly results and guidance failed to impress investors.

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix were preparing bids for the company ahead of next week’s deadline.

Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) spiked about +103% in pre-market trading after Merck agreed to acquire the company in a deal valued at about $9.2 billion.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday - November 14th

Spire (SR), Legence (LGN), Scholar Rock (SRRK), RLX Technology (RLX), Quantum (QUBT), Twist Bioscience (TWST), Bit Digital (BTBT), T1 Energy (TE), Sigma Lithium Resources (SGML), Venu Holding (VENU), SBC Medical Holdings (SBC), Flexible Solutions (FSI), Gauzy (GAUZ).