Commodity Roundup- October’s Top Performers and Underperformers

Gold and silver reached new all-time highs before correcting. Most metals, energy, and grain prices were higher, while soft commodities and meat futures moved to the downside for the month ending on Friday, October 31, in a month where the dollar index and bond futures were higher. 

There were double-digit percentage gains in palladium and crude oil crack spreads. FCOJ fell by over 28%, while world sugar futures moved over 13% lower in October. 

New highs in gold, and silver, and a correction

Gold and silver futures posted 3.18% and 3.26% respective gains in October, but the leading precious metals corrected from their new record highs. 

The five-year continuous COMEX gold futures chart highlights the parabolic move that took the yellow metal to an all-time high of $4,398 per ounce, before correcting and settling at just under the $4,000 level on October 31. 

The five-year continuous COMEX gold futures chart highlights the parabolic move that took the yellow metal to an all-time high of $4,398 per ounce, before correcting and settling at just under the $4,000 level on October 31. 

The five-year continuous COMEX silver futures chart highlights the explosive move that took the second-leading precious metal above the 1980 peak to an all-time high of $53.765 per ounce, before correcting and settling at $48.16 per ounce on October 31. 

While platinum fell 1.89% in October, it was the only precious metal posting a decline. Palladium was the leader on the upside, with a 13.03% gain. All four precious metals settled well below the highs of the month on October 31 as gravity took hold of the sector. While precious metals remain the most bullish commodity sector in 2025, even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines. 

Grain and oilseed futures recover

CBOT soybeans, wheat, and corn futures recovered from low levels. The prospects for a trade deal between Washington and Beijing lifted soybean futures at the end of October, with corn and wheat futures following the oilseed higher. 

The monthly chart shows that the soybean futures rallied over the $11 per bushel level at the end of October, and formed a bullish key reversal on the monthly chart. Time will tell if the technical formation can lead to further gains in November and beyond. Soybean futures rallied 9.31% in October. 

The monthly corn futures chart highlights the rally to over the $4.30 per bushel level at the end of October. Corn also formed a bullish key reversal on the monthly chart. Corn futures rallied 3.85% in October.

The monthly CBOT soft red winter wheat futures chart highlights the rally from under $5 to over the $5.30 per bushel level at the end of October. The wheat futures just missed forming a bullish key reversal on the monthly chart by under two cents. CBOT wheat futures moved 5.12% higher in October.

Seasonality hits the meats

The 2025 grilling season ended in early September, with cattle futures reaching new record highs. Seasonality was the theme in the animal protein sector in October, as live and feeder cattle, as well as lean hog futures, posted declines. 

The daily chart highlights the 2.17% decline in the December live cattle futures in October. The live cattle were the best-performing of the three meat futures in the month that ended on October 31. 

The daily feeder cattle chart for January delivery highlights the 5.99% October decline. The seasonal declines in the two cattle futures were typical of post-grilling season price action. Live and feeder cattle futures formed bearish key reversal patterns on their monthly charts in October. Prices remain elevated going into November and the winter, which could leave plenty of room for further declines.

Lean hogs did not form a bearish reversal on the monthly chart in October, but the daily chart shows that the pork futures underperformed the bearish cattle markets in October, with an 8.40% decline. 

In other markets, copper recovered by 4.79%, while lumber futures fell 8.84%. Copper has been volatile due to trade issues, while lumber futures fell as long-term interest rates remain elevated. 

Crude oil futures were lower, but oil products and crack spreads rallied. Natural gas and Rotterdam coal futures moved higher as winter approaches, while ethanol was lower for the month, which reflects seasonality. 

Soft commodities remain volatile, with a 28.90% decline in FCOJ and a 13.07% drop in world sugar futures. Cocoa fell 8.86%, while Arabica coffee futures moved 4.59% higher on Brazilian crop concerns. Cotton edged only 0.35% lower for the month. 

The stock market rallied, bonds were slightly higher, and the dollar index rose 2.24%. Higher bonds and a higher dollar index are mixed signals for commodity prices. Meanwhile, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum declined by 4.17% and 7.45%, respectively, in October after reaching record highs earlier in the year. 

Factors to watch in December 2025- Natural gas enters the withdrawal season

As the 2025 winter season approaches, the odds continue to favor price weakness in meats and gasoline. 

As I wrote in the September monthly recap, “The U.S. natural gas futures market tends to reach seasonal highs when the injection season ends and withdrawal from stockpiles begins in November. However, the futures market tends to reflect the upcoming peak demand season in early fall.” Volatility is likely to increase in NYMEX U.S. natural gas futures over the coming weeks. LNG demand from Europe, as sanctions could support prices, as U.S. supplies replace Russian natural gas exports to the European market. Nearby natural gas futures prices were over $4.12 per MMBtu at the end of October, with prices for January 2026 delivery settling at $4.369 per MMBtu on October 31.

The monthly chart shows the upside target is at the March 2025 high of $4.908 per MMBtu. 

With the injection season ending in November, inventories across the United States at 3.882 trillion cubic feet are only 0.8% above last year’s level and 4.6% over the five-year average for the week ending on October 24. Aside from LNG demand and the bullish trend going into November, the temperatures across the U.S. over the coming weeks will determine heating demand and the path of least resistance of the energy commodity. 

Keep a close eye on those precious metals, as gold and silver remain in long-term bullish trends. The decline of fiat currencies’ purchasing power continues to be a factor supporting gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and nonferrous metals. 

The bull market in stocks continues, but the economic and geopolitical landscapes provide more than a few roadblocks. The U.S. government shutdown continues in early November, as Democrats and Republicans have dug in their heels on ideological and political grounds. While past government shutdowns have not impacted stocks and other markets, this time may be different, as there is no end in sight as of early November. The loss of paychecks and government jobs could begin to impact the U.S. economy if the shutdown continues over the coming weeks.  

Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in November and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed.