ETF Strategies to Follow in 2H 2025

Stocks staged a remarkable recovery from their April lows, closing out the first half of the year with strong gains. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posted all-time highs, thanks to fading geopolitical tensions and ebbing tariff-related fears.

There is a growingbelief among some investors that while President Trump often adopts a hard-hitting stance on tariffs, he frequently softens on his tone at the last moment. This perception has created a positive sentiment among traders, who are betting big on last-minute shifts in policy.

With trade agreements reportedly in progress with both China and the UK ahead of Trump’s self-imposed July 9 deadline, investors have increasingly priced in a "Goldilocks” scenario —where earnings remain strong, tariffs have minimal economic impact, and the Federal Reserve delivers interest rate cuts.

Risks Linger Beneath Optimism?

Despite the buoyant mood, analysts on Wall Street are signaling caution. Some analysts believe that tariff increases are still on the table. This could add strain to an already fragile U.S. economy marked by weakening consumer demand and global manufacturing slowdowns.

The economic data remains murky. A downward revision to Q1 GDP growth, a slight rise in PCE inflation, and continued jobless claims — now at their highest since 2021— point to softness in the labor market.

Still, markets have largely brushed off those warning signs. Encouragingly, job openings in May rose to their highest level since November 2024, and economists noted that falling inflation in sectors like housing and energy could offset the effects of higher tariffs.

Rate Cuts: A Divisive Forecast

One of the biggest open questions heading into the second half is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. President Trump has intensified pressure on the Fed to do so, but economists remain skeptical about the timing.

Despite market expectations for a rate cut by September, Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to stay put till 2026, when a new, more dovish Fed chair may succeed Jerome Powell, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.

JPMorgan similarly cautioned that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates unless private payroll growth falls below 100,000 in upcoming reports. The Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a 110,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for June and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. This would keep the Fed in “wait-and-see” mode. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has reiterated the need for patience as the central bank evaluates the impact of new tariffs.

ETF Strategies to Follow in 2H 2025

Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few exchange-traded fund (ETF) strategies that could help investors in the second half of 2025.

Focus on Quality and Stability

In an environment marked by shifting policy, geopolitical risks, or unpredictable central bank messaging, quality-focused ETFs, such as iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF QUAL or Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF SPHQ could be good options. These ETFs offer exposure to companies with strong balance sheets, consistent earnings, and high return on equity. These firms are more likely to weather ambiguity with resilience.

Embrace Low Volatility

When volatility spikes, capital preservation often trumps growth. Low-volatility ETFs, such as iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF USMV or Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF SPLV, aim to reduce downside risk without leaving the market entirely.

Diversify Across Assets

ETFs that blend asset classes can serve as a stabilizing force. Multi-asset ETFs, like iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF AOR soften help investors amid volatile market. The AOR ETF charges 15 bps in fees and yields 2.52% annually. The AOR ETF has advanced 6.8% so far this year (as of July 1, 2025).

Dividend ETFs: All-Time Go-To Bets

Dividends should be in one’s portfolio in volatile times. FT Vest S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Target Income ETF KNG yields 8.92% annually and charges 75 bps in fees. High-dividend stocks and ETFs provide investors with avenues to make up for capital losses if that happens at all.

Gold and Inflation Hedges

Uncertainty often comes with inflation surprises or currency volatility. SPDR Gold Shares GLD is deemed the best safe haven asset right now (read: Why Gold ETFs Offer the Best Safe Haven Right Now).

AI: The New Safe Haven

The global AI market is experiencing rapid and transformative growth. The momentum is further accelerated by breakthroughs in AI robotics, autonomous systems, advanced sensors, computer vision, machine learning, natural language processing, and generative AI.

Since we do not anticipate major flare-ups in the trade war during the second half of the year, we believe the AI trade will remain in fine fettle. Any economic slowdown is unlikely to hurt AI stocks or their peripheral investment areas.

Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution ETF IVES, Defiance Quantum ETF QTUM and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ QQQ are the best plays out here.

Hedge With Global Diversification

ETFs like Vanguard Total International Stock ETF VXUS or iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF EZU allow you to diversify globally. The ETF EZU is up 27% this year (read: International ETFs Hover Around One-Year High: 5 ETF Winners). 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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