Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737
Released March 8, 2024, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Orange Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from February Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is
2.77 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and
up 11 percent from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 19.8 million boxes (891,000 tons), is unchanged from the
previous forecast but up 25 percent from last season's final utilization. In
Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
6.80 million boxes (306,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but
up 11 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (585,000 tons), is unchanged from the
previous forecast but up 35 percent from last season's final utilization.
The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.00 million boxes (320,000 tons),
up 3 percent from previous forecast and up 19 percent from the previous
season. This results in a California all orange forecast of
46.0 million boxes (1.84 million tons), up less than 1 percent from the
previous forecast and up 6 percent from last season's final utilization. The
forecast for Texas is carried forward from the previous forecast.
This report was approved on March 8, 2024.
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Seth Meyer
Agricultural Statistics Board
Acting Chairperson
Lance Honig
Contents
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2022 and 2023................ 4
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted
March 1, 2024............................................................................................ 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.. 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.... 8
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.............................. 10
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024................................ 11
Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12
Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12
February Weather Summary................................................................................. 13
February Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13
Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14
Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15
Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15
Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2022 and 2023
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: -- 1,000 acres -- ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons ---
:
For sugar :
Florida ............: 386.0 391.0 44.5 44.4 17,177 17,360
Louisiana ..........: 474.0 481.0 32.1 29.9 15,215 14,382
Texas ..............: 30.9 16.5 22.6 22.5 698 371
:
United States ......: 890.9 888.5 37.1 36.1 33,090 32,113
:
For seed :
Florida ............: 15.9 16.6 47.4 49.8 754 827
Louisiana ..........: 23.1 24.5 35.5 33.7 820 826
Texas ..............: 0.3 - 24.6 (X) 7 -
:
United States ......: 39.3 41.1 40.2 40.2 1,581 1,653
:
For sugar and seed :
Florida ............: 401.9 407.6 44.6 44.6 17,931 18,187
Louisiana ..........: 497.1 505.5 32.3 30.1 16,035 15,208
Texas ..............: 31.2 16.5 22.6 22.5 705 371
:
United States ......: 930.2 929.6 37.3 36.3 34,671 33,766
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Net tons.
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and
Forecasted March 1, 2024
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest
the following year]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons -----
Oranges :
California, all ..............: 43,200 46,000 1,728 1,840
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 3/ .: 36,500 38,000 1,460 1,520
Valencia ....................: 6,700 8,000 268 320
:
Florida, all .................: 15,800 19,800 711 891
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 6,150 6,800 277 306
Valencia ....................: 9,650 13,000 434 585
:
Texas, all 2/ ................: 1,130 950 48 41
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 570 600 24 26
Valencia ....................: 560 350 24 15
:
United States, all ...........: 60,130 66,750 2,487 2,772
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ....: 43,220 45,400 1,761 1,852
Valencia ....................: 16,910 21,350 726 920
:
Grapefruit :
California 2/ ................: 4,000 3,800 160 152
Florida ......................: 1,810 2,200 77 94
Texas 2/ .....................: 2,250 2,350 90 94
:
United States ................: 8,060 8,350 327 340
:
Tangerines and mandarins 4/ :
California 2/ ................: 23,700 22,000 948 880
Florida ......................: 480 500 23 24
:
United States ................: 24,180 22,500 971 904
:
Lemons 2/ :
Arizona ......................: 1,400 900 56 36
California ...................: 26,500 20,000 1,060 800
:
United States ................: 27,900 20,900 1,116 836
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,
Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and mid-season varieties
in Florida and Texas.
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 acres
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 3,101 2,555
Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 94,641 86,513
Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,471
Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,821
Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,634
All other ............................: (NA) 37,187
Oats ...................................: 2,555 831
Proso millet ...........................: 619 572
Rice ...................................: 2,894 2,854
Rye ....................................: 2,293 322
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,195 6,115
Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 384
Wheat, all .............................: 49,575 37,272
Winter ...............................: 36,699 34,425 24,683
Durum ................................: 1,676 1,604
Other spring .........................: 11,200 10,985
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 2,344.5 2,319.2
Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed ...............................: 178 160
Mustard seed ...........................: 245.0 238.1
Peanuts ................................: 1,645.0 1,574.0
Rapeseed ...............................: 13.2 10.1
Safflower ..............................: 129.5 126.0
Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,600 82,356
Sunflower ..............................: 1,315.0 1,267.5
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all ............................: 10,230.0 7,064.6
Upland ...............................: 10,083.0 6,924.8
American Pima ........................: 147.0 139.8
Sugarbeets .............................: 1,137.4 1,127.3
Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 929.6
Tobacco ................................: (NA) 187.6
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ..............................: 372.4 359.2
Dry edible beans .......................: 1,180.0 1,156.9
Dry edible peas ........................: 966.0 941.0
Lentils ................................: 546.0 523.0
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...................................: (NA) 54.3
Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 31.3
Potatoes ...............................: 965.0 960.2
Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 12.2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2023 and 2024 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per acre : Production
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 ------
:
Grains and hay :
Barley ..........................bushels: 72.4 185,036
Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.3 15,341,595
Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 129,994
Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.25 118,769
Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.19 49,916
All other ........................tons: 1.85 68,853
Oats ............................bushels: 68.6 57,045
Proso millet ....................bushels: 34.2 19,572
Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,649 218,291
Rye .............................bushels: 32.2 10,375
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 52.0 317,745
Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.0 4,981
Wheat, all ......................bushels: 48.6 1,811,977
Winter ........................bushels: 50.6 1,247,748
Durum .........................bushels: 37.0 59,329
Other spring ..................bushels: 46.0 504,900
:
Oilseeds :
Canola ...........................pounds: 1,793 4,157,420
Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 3,788.0
Flaxseed ........................bushels: 18.5 2,961
Mustard seed .....................pounds: 627 149,305
Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,742 5,890,020
Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,003 20,230
Safflower ........................pounds: 1,036 130,570
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.6 4,164,677
Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,786 2,263,520
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 845 12,434.0
Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 12,127.0
American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,054 307.0
Sugarbeets .........................tons: 31.2 35,226
Sugarcane ..........................tons: 36.3 33,766
Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,305 432,452
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 4,722
Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,067 23,910
Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,922 18,086
Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,098 5,742
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops .............................pounds: 1,915 104,042.5
Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,179
Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 666,647
Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 90 2,811
Potatoes ............................cwt: 459 440,750
Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 126 1,541
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Yield in pounds.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: hectares
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .........................: 1,254,940 1,033,980
Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 38,300,270 35,010,950
Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,618,750
Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,376,130
Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,326,920
All other ....................: (NA) 15,049,210
Oats ...........................: 1,033,980 336,300
Proso millet ...................: 250,500 231,480
Rice ...........................: 1,171,170 1,154,990
Rye ............................: 927,950 130,310
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,911,740 2,474,680
Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 155,400
Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 20,062,510 15,083,610
Winter .......................: 14,851,720 13,931,450 9,988,960
Durum ........................: 678,260 649,120
Other spring .................: 4,532,530 4,445,520
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .........................: 948,800 938,560
Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 64,750
Mustard seed ...................: 99,150 96,360
Peanuts ........................: 665,720 636,980
Rapeseed .......................: 5,340 4,090
Safflower ......................: 52,410 50,990
Soybeans for beans .............: 33,832,080 33,328,650
Sunflower ......................: 532,170 512,940
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,139,980 2,858,970
Upland .......................: 4,080,490 2,802,400
American Pima ................: 59,490 56,580
Sugarbeets .....................: 460,290 456,210
Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 376,200
Tobacco ........................: (NA) 75,930
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ......................: 150,710 145,360
Dry edible beans ...............: 477,530 468,190
Dry edible peas ................: 390,930 380,810
Lentils ........................: 220,960 211,650
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...........................: (NA) 21,980
Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 12,670
Potatoes .......................: 390,530 388,580
Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,940
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2023 and 2024 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per hectare : Production
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 3.90 4,028,680
Corn for grain .........................: 11.13 389,694,460
Corn for silage ........................: 45.03 117,928,570
Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.04 107,745,420
Alfalfa ..............................: 7.16 45,283,030
All other ............................: 4.15 62,462,390
Oats ...................................: 2.46 828,010
Proso millet ...........................: 1.92 443,890
Rice ...................................: 8.57 9,901,510
Rye ....................................: 2.02 263,540
Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.26 8,071,090
Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.08 4,518,690
Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.27 49,313,930
Winter ...............................: 3.40 33,958,140
Durum ................................: 2.49 1,614,670
Other spring .........................: 3.09 13,741,130
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 2.01 1,885,770
Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,436,420
Flaxseed ...............................: 1.16 75,210
Mustard seed ...........................: 0.70 67,720
Peanuts ................................: 4.19 2,671,670
Rapeseed ...............................: 2.25 9,180
Safflower ..............................: 1.16 59,230
Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.40 113,343,930
Sunflower ..............................: 2.00 1,026,720
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 2,707,180
Upland ...............................: 0.94 2,640,340
American Pima ........................: 1.18 66,840
Sugarbeets .............................: 70.05 31,956,490
Sugarcane ..............................: 81.42 30,632,000
Tobacco ................................: 2.58 196,160
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 214,190
Dry edible beans .......................: 2.32 1,084,540
Dry edible peas ........................: 2.15 820,370
Lentils ................................: 1.23 260,450
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...................................: 2.15 47,190
Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 20,900
Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 302,390
Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 1,280
Potatoes ...............................: 51.45 19,992,090
Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 700
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Total may not add due to rounding.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 327 340
Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,116 836
Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,487 2,772
Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 971 904
:
Noncitrus :
Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 9,910.0
Apricots ..............................tons: 32,400
Avocados ..............................tons:
Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds:
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds:
Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 371,000
Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 203.0
Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds:
Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,620,000
:
Dates .................................tons:
Grapes ................................tons: 6,285,000
Kiwifruit (California) ................tons:
Nectarines (California) ...............tons:
Olives (California) ...................tons:
Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds:
Peaches ...............................tons: 543,000
Pears .................................tons: 645,000
Plums (California) ....................tons:
Prunes (California) ...................tons:
Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds:
Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons:
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds:
Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 271,450
Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds:
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 760,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2023 : 2024
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ................................: 296,650 308,440
Lemons ....................................: 1,012,420 758,410
Oranges ...................................: 2,256,170 2,514,720
Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 880,880 820,100
:
Noncitrus :
Apples, commercial ........................: 4,495,100
Apricots ..................................: 29,390
Avocados ..................................:
Blueberries, Cultivated ...................:
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................:
Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 336,570
Cherries, Tart ............................: 92,080
Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................:
Cranberries ...............................: 345,640
:
Dates .....................................:
Grapes ....................................: 5,701,660
Kiwifruit (California) ....................:
Nectarines (California) ...................:
Olives (California) .......................:
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:
Peaches ...................................: 492,600
Pears .....................................: 585,130
Plums (California) ........................:
Prunes (California) .......................:
Raspberries, all ..........................:
Strawberries ..............................:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............:
Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................:
Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 123,130
Pistachios (California) ...................:
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 689,460
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024.
February Weather Summary
Like December 2023, February featured record-shattering monthly warmth across
much of the central United States, including portions of the Plains and
Midwest. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 10�F above normal from the
northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes States. Consistent,
early-season warmth extended to other areas, including the Northwest,
Northeast, and mid-South. In fact, slightly cooler-than-normal February
conditions were generally limited to Florida's peninsula, as well as parts of
California and the Desert Southwest. The net result of the lack of wintry
weather was to accelerate the spring development of a variety of Southern
crops, including winter grains and budding or blooming fruits. During a
particularly notable warm spell in late February, winter wheat broke dormancy
(or was actively growing) across roughly the southern half of the Nation,
leaving the crop potentially vulnerable to any sharp spring cold snaps.
However, through late February, wheat continued to overwinter well, with crop
conditions mostly steady or improving since autumn 2023. Notably, Kansas
reported the most significant improvement in winter wheat rated good to
excellent between November 26 and February 25, from 32 to 57 percent. During
the same period, Kansas noted a corresponding decrease in wheat rated very
poor to poor, from 32 to 13 percent. Other states observing a double-digit
increase in winter wheat rated good to excellent between late November and
late February included North Carolina (from 71 to 89 percent), Oklahoma (from
53 to 70 percent), Nebraska (from 49 to 60 percent), and Michigan (from 46 to
57 percent). Meanwhile, Montana-which dealt with frigid mid-January weather
and mostly below-average winter snowfall-experienced the greatest decline in
winter wheat rated good to excellent (from 58 to 45 percent) during the
3-month period ending in late February.
"Snow drought" also extended into parts of the upper Midwest, leading to
concerns regarding lack of soil moisture recharge and potential spring and
summer water shortages for rain-fed summer crops. Despite the concerns
related to lack of snow, national drought coverage dipped to 19.46 percent by
February 13, according to the Drought Monitor, down from more than 40 percent
as recently as October 2023 and the lowest since May 30, 2023. In much of the
West, however, stormy weather in January and February helped to boost
high-elevation snowpack, following a slow start to the winter wet season.
According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water
equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack climbed nearly 10 inches during the
month to top 18 inches, approximately 80 percent of normal for the end of
February. Farther north, however, significantly below-average snowpack was
observed at the end of February in much of Montana and Washington, as well as
northern sections of Idaho and Wyoming.
Late in the month, record-setting warmth, accompanied by low humidity levels
and high winds, contributed to devastating wildfires across Texas' northern
panhandle and environs. Many of the fires, which started on February 26 or
27, were ignited in the Canadian River drainage basin. Soon, the
Smokehouse Creek Fire-east and northeast of Lake Meredith-became the largest
wildfire in modern Texas history, scorching nearly 1.1 million acres, not
including additional acreage in western Oklahoma. During the late-month warm
spell, dozens of all-time February and winter record-high temperatures were
established across the Plains and Midwest. On February 27, for the first time
ever in a winter month, St. Louis, Missouri (86�F), topped the 85-degree mark
and Quincy, Illinois (80�F), achieved an 80-degree reading. On the same date
in Michigan, readings of 70�F or above were observed for the first time ever
on a December-February day in Saginaw (74�F), Grand Rapids (73�F),
Traverse City (73�F), and Alpena (70�F).
February Agricultural Summary
February was warmer than normal for most of the Nation. Large parts of the
Upper Midwest and Northern Plains recorded temperatures 12�F or more above
normal. In contrast, most of the Florida peninsula, as well as parts of
California and the Southwest, were moderately cooler than normal for the
month. Much of the western half of the Nation recorded higher than average
amounts of precipitation for February. Parts of the Central Plains, Rockies,
and Southwest, as well as locations in the Pacific Northwest, recorded at
least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Locations along the Northern
California Coast recorded at least 18 inches of precipitation for the month.
In contrast, except for parts of the Appalachians and South, most of the
eastern half of the Nation was drier than normal.
Crop Comments
Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is estimated at
33.8 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but down 3 percent
from last season. Producers harvested 929,600 acres for sugar and seed during
the 2023 crop year, down 1 percent from last month and down slightly from
last season. Yields for sugar and seed averaged 36.3 tons per acre,
up 0.7 ton from last month but down 1.0 ton from last season.
Grapefruit: The United States 2023-2024 grapefruit crop is forecast at
340,000 tons, down 2 percent from the previous forecast but up 4 percent from
last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 2.20 million boxes
(94,000 tons), is down 8 percent from the previous forecast but up 22 percent
from the last season. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts
were carried forward from the previous forecast.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is
forecast at 904,000 tons, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast
and down 7 percent from the last season's final utilization. The Florida
tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 500,000 boxes (24,000 tons), is
down 9 percent from the last forecast but is up 4 percent from last year. The
California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the
previous forecast.
Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the March 1 forecast
was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of
bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are
conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the
current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys
on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also
conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in
March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses
the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published March 1
forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for
setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current
situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey
data and the State analyses to prepare the published March 1 forecast.
Revision policy: The March 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new
forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season
estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August.
The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the
marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and
processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and
home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the March 1
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the March 1
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root
Mean Square Error" for the March 1 orange production forecast is 4.8 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production
forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 4.8
percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 8.4 percent.
Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for oranges of the
differences between the March 1 forecast and the final estimate. Changes
between the March 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past
20-years have averaged 203,000 tons, ranging from 7,000 tons to 733,000 tons.
The March 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times
and above 12 times. This does not imply that the March 1 forecast for oranges
this year is likely to understate or overstate final production.
Reliability of March 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : Difference between forecast
: : : and final estimate
: : :----------------------------------------------
: :90 percent : Production : Years
Crop : Root mean :confidence :----------------------------------------------
:square error: interval : : : : Below : Above
: : : Average : Smallest : Largest : final : final
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---- percent --- ------- thousands ------ number
:
Oranges ..................tons: 4.8 8.4 203 7 733 8 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to
nass@usda.gov
Chris Hawthorn, Acting Chief, Crops Branch........................................... (202) 720-2127
Travis Thorson, Acting Head, Field Crops Section..................................... (202) 720-2127
Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition...................................... (202) 720-7621
Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans............................................. (202) 690-3234
Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.. (202) 690-1042
David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products........................... (202) 720-8800
Michelle Harder - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533
James Johanson - Rye, Wheat..................................................... (202) 720-8068
Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet..................................... (202) 720-9526
Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944
Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...................................... (202) 720-7369
Travis Thorson - Peanuts, Rice.................................................. (202) 720-2127
Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................... (202) 720-2127
Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Tobacco............................................................... (202) 720-4288
Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans,
Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................. (202) 720-7235
Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia,
Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach............................................. (202) 720-3250
Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons,
Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............... (202) 720-5412
Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins,
Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......................... (202) 720-4285
Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas,
Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.............. (202) 720-2157
Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower,
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215
Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
ways:
All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web
site: www.nass.usda.gov.
Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit
www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right
corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports
you would like to receive.
Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and
other agency's archived reports. The new website,
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing
reports will be sent from the new website,
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via
e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account
and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an
account or subscribe, they are located at:
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist
notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to
avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
nass@usda.gov.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against
its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race,
color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion,
reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial
or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic
information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded
by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs
and/or employment activities.)
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination,
complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online
at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer,
or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may
also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form.
Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue,
S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at
program.intake@usda.gov. Crop Production
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