Soy Trading Mostly Red at Midday

After futures added risk premium to the Hamas attack into the new week, futures have faded through the day session. Beans are trading 3 to 6 cents in the red so far, with November 13 cents off the session high. Soybean Oil futures are down by triple digits at midday. Soymeal futures are the complex outlier with $3 to $7/ton gains at midday. 

The weekly Export Inspections report and the Crop Progress update will be delayed until tomorrow in recognition of Columbus / Indigenous Peoples’ Day. 

Going into Thursday’s report day, traders expect a 0.1 bpa trim to soy yield on average at 50 flat. The full range is from a 0.6 bpa trim to a 0.7 bpa increase relative to the Sep report. On net bean production is expected to drop 10.8 mbu to 4.135 bbu on average, though survey respondents would not be surprised to see production reported between 4.09 bbu and 4.2 bbu. Traders expect USDA to raise carryout by 13 mbu on average to 233. That implies an anticipated demand loss of 6 mbu on average as the Grain Stocks had +18 to carry-in relative to the Sep WASDE. 

Nov 23 Soybeans  are at $12.61 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $11.99 3/8, down 4 1/8 cents,

Jan 24 Soybeans  are at $12.80, down 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 24 Soybeans  are at $12.93 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,