Wheat Futures Back to Red into Day Trade

The overnight wheat trade looked to start higher, but prices faded into the AM. Current quotes are fractionally mixed to 2 ½ cents lower across the 3 markets. Wheat futures continue to adjust the spreads amongst the classes. Chicago prices were fractionally to 2 ¼ cents higher on the day, while the hard reds faded. KC futures ended the session with losses of as much as 4 cents, and MGE futures were 1 ¾ to 2 ½ cents weaker. 

Analysts are looking for NASS to show 1.77 bbu of Sep wheat stocks in the quarterly report. That would be 7 mbu tighter yr/yr on a 26 mbu tighter supply via WASDE. For the Small Grains report also slated for Friday, analysts are looking for a 2 mbu reduced production outlook for wheat. The average trade guess is to see 1.732 mbu, though estimates range from 1.689 bbu to 1.757. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported winter wheat planting reached 1.02m HA as of 9/26. That is 64% ahead of last year, mainly reflecting a larger area dedicated to wheat. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry had 1.57 MMT of grain shipments for the month of Sep thus far. That trails last year’s 3.2 MMT pace, with Russian destruction of export facilities hampering movement. Egypt is reportedly in direct negotiations (no tender) with Russia for 1-2 MMT of Russian wheat.  EU soft wheat exports for the marketing year were 6.88 MMT as of 9/24. That would be down 27% from last year at the same point. 

Dec 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.89, unch, currently down 1 1/2 cents

Mar 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.16 1/4, up 3/4 cent, currently down 1 3/4 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $5.02 7/8, down 0 cent,

Dec 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $7.10 1/2, down 4 cents, currently down 2 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $6.39 7/8, down 3 7/8 cents,

Dec 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $7.66 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents, currently down 1 cent