Red Tuesday for Soy Futures

The soy futures market was red across the board with at least 1% losses. Beans went home about a nickel off their lows, but still down by 14 1/2 to 19 1/2 cents. Soybean meal prices closed $6.60 to $9.10 weaker. Soybean oil prices faded 62 points on the day. 

USDA’s Crop Progress report had 35% of the new crop beans planted by 5/7. That compares to 19% last week and the 5-yr average of 21%. NASS had soybean emergence at 9% nationally compared to 4% on average. 

Survey respondents expect USDA to raise the old crop soybean carryout in Friday’s WASDE report. The average estimate is for 215.8 mbu ending stocks, up 5.8 from April, but estimates range from a 50 mbu boost to a 31 mbu cut. Global soy carryout is estimated to be 1 MMT tighter at 99 MMT on average. The trade average guess for Argentina production is 24.2 MMT, which would be 3 MMT tighter than the April figure. 

New crop soybean production is estimated at 4.496 bbu on average. The full range of pre-report estimates is from 4.417 to 4.513 bbu. Traders are looking for new crop soybean ending stocks to be reported from as tight as 228, still 18 mbu looser yr/yr, to as loose as 371 mbu. The average of trader estimates is 292 million. 

Chinese import data from April indicated 7.26 MMT of soybean imports during the month. That was down 9.8% vs. the same month in 2022. Some sources attribute the slowdown to a change in Chinese port procedures that is creating delays in unloading and movement from the ports. Total imports YTD are still 6.8% larger than in 2022 at 30.29 MMT. 

Jul 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.14 1/4, down 19 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $13.97, down 23 cents,

Aug 23 Soybeans  closed at $13.47 1/2, down 18 cents,

Nov 23 Soybeans  closed at $12.54 1/2, down 18 cents,