Wheat at Lows after Gap Up

After gapping higher out of the Easter break, wheat futures have backed off back to their start – that has SRW 3 1/2 cents higher so far. At the high, May was 12 cents. CBT SRW futures ended the Thursday session down by 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents. MGE spring wheat prices were 1 1/2 to 4 cents lower on the day. KC was the outlier with 2 to 3 cent gains on Thursday. 

Weekly CoT data showed spec funds were closing shorts during the week that ended 4/4. For SRW that left the group at a 87k contract net short, from 90k last week. For HRW that expanded the groups net long to 7.6k contracts from 237. In spring wheat, the report showed managed money was 694 contracts net long as of 4/4. 

Ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report, survey respondents are looking for USDA to raise the U.S. wheat stocks by 8.5 mbu to 576.5 million. Global wheat carryout is estimated at 267 MMT on average, little change from March. 

The weekly Export Sales report showed 193,645 MT of wheat was sold for the week that ended 3/30. That was up 28% from the previous week and was 24% higher than the same week last year. Sales were mid-range of pre-report estimates. 

Monthly census data showed 68.77 mbu of wheat exports for Feb. That was a 5% boost from January’s export and was 1% higher than Feb ’22. The full season’s total remains 2.7% behind last year’s pace with 591.5 mbu shipped. 

May 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.75 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents, currently up 3 1/2 cents

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.88, down 6 3/4 cents, currently up 3 1/2 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.18 3/8, down 6 5/8 cents,

May 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.64 1/2, up 3 cents, currently up 8 1/2 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.18, down 3 3/8 cents,

May 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.72, down 1 1/2 cents, currently up 6 1/2 cents