Red Start for Wheat Futures

AM wheat quotes are weaker across all markets so far with fractional to 5 cent losses across the markets. The hard red wheat futures stayed in the black on Thursday with a penny gain for HRW and 1 3/4 to 5 3/4 cent gains for HRS. Chicago futures on the other hand fell double digits, going home 1.2% to 1.8% in the red.  Turkey officially bought only 395,000 MT of their initially announced 695,000 MT from a Tuesday tender. 

Survey results going into NASS’s quarterly Grain Stocks report have wheat at 928 mbu on average. The full range of estimates is from 875 million to 1.02 billion bushels. The Q3 implied demand would be 351 mbu if the average is realized, compared to 348 mbu last season. 

New crop acreage is expected to come in at 48.9 million in Friday’s data. Estimates range from 45.7 to 50 million for all wheat, compared to USDA’s Outlook Forum 49.5 figure and 45.7 million last season. Of that, the trade has 10.9m acres dialed in on average for spring wheat. 

USDA reported 151,749 MT of old crop wheat sales for the week that ended 3/23. That was up 20% from the week and was 60% higher than the same week last year. Mexico was the week’s top buyer. New crop’s export sales were 37,400 MT. Accumulated commitments were at 18 MMT or 661.9 mbu. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported 5.1 MMT of grain exports for March. That is up from the 1.4 MMT during the same month last year when the war had just begun. The MYTD volume reached 37.4 MMT, which is 16.7% lower than last year, and included 12.8 MMT of wheat. 

May 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.92 1/4, down 12 1/2 cents, currently down 2 1/2 cents

Jul 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.04 1/2, down 11 3/4 cents, currently down 3 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.36 1/8, down 13 cents,

May 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.71 1/2, up 1 cent, currently down 1 3/4 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.37 3/4, up 1 cent,

May 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $8.79 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents, currently down 7 cents