Mixed Soy Board at Midday

Soybeans sold off hard after the USDA numbers came out, got a good dead cat bounce, and are now drifting lower. Going into the report, beans were mostly mixed within a penny of UNCH, but March was up by a nickel. Soymeal futures are higher by $1.70 to $2.40/ton. BO futures are working with midday losses of 35 to 45 points. The updated USDA cash average prices were 10c higher for soybeans to $14.30/bu, $25/ton higher for meal to $450, and UNCH at 68 cents/lb for soy oil. 

The domestic soybean S&D tables saw a 15mbu cut to crush, now forecasted at 2.23 bbu. Ending stocks were 15 mbu looser to 225 as that was the only change. The trade was looking for 211 mbu on average. For the products, the lower crush trimmed BO production by 65m lbs and meal production by 200k tons. For the oil, exports were reduced and for the meal domestic use was cut. 

The world numbers saw a 5 MMT production trim, primarily from Argentina. Argentina was shown with a 41 MMT crop, compared to 45.5 MMT last month, 43.9 MMT last year, and 42 MMT expected. Brazil was left at a record 153 MMT production figure. Global soybean stocks were 1.49 MMT tighter at 102.3 MMT, but above the 101.8 MMT average trade estimate. 

Brazil’s CONAB data calls for a 152.9 MMT soy crop. That is 177k MT higher than their Jan figure given higher yields in Mato Grosso, MGDS, and Parana partially offset by a reduction for RGDS. CONAB is now below the official WASDE estimate of 153.0 MMT. The Rosario Grains Exchange forecasts Argentina’s soy crop at 34.5 MMT, a 2.5 MMT cut from January and now 6 MMT below the USDA forecast. 

Mar 23 Soybeans  are at $15.20 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $14.78 7/8, up 4 7/8 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  are at $15.14 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

Jul 23 Soybeans  are at $15.07, up 2 3/4 cents,