Wheat Markets Mixed but Mostly Weaker

Wheat futures are lower in CBT markets, but mixed in the hard reds ahead of the Stats Canada stocks report. Old crop HRW wheat prices held onto gains on Monday, but they were limited to 3 cents – with March 10 1/2 cents off its daily high. The new crop HRW prices were fractionally mixed to 2 cents weaker. CBT SRW ended the day down by 4 1/2 to 6 1/2 cents. MPLS spring wheat futures went home 3 1/2 to 4 cents lower on the week’s first trade day. 

NASS state statistics showed TX winter wheat was 2 points lower on the Brugler500 compared to last week at a 235, with 13% good and no excellent. Winter wheat there was 7% headed, compared to 5% last week and the 5-yr average of 5%. 

Weekly Inspections data showed 536,355 MT of wheat was exported during the week that ended 2/02. That was up from 446k MT last week, and was 102k MT above the same week last year. USDA’s data had +100k MT for each class, but white wheat led the week with 174k MT of the total. The accumulated wheat export was at 13.759 MMT as of 2/02, trailing last year’s pace by 291k MT. 

Russia’s wheat export tax will be 4,497 Rubles/MT (~$63.75/MT) this week, according to Interfax. That is up from 4,365 last week.

U.S. wheat carryout is anticipated to loosen 7.6 mbu in USDA’s Feb WASDE, according to the average of pre-report estimates. That would leave carryout at 574.6 mbu if realized. The full range of estimates for domestic wheat stocks is from 557 (-10) to 612 (+45) mbu. Global wheat stocks ideas average 268.8 MMT, which would be 400k MT looser if realized. 

Mar 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.50 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents, currently down 1 3/4 cents

May 23 CBOT Wheat  closed at $7.62, down 6 1/4 cents, currently down 2 1/4 cents

Cash SRW Wheat  was $6.89, down 6 5/8 cents,

Mar 23 KCBT Wheat  closed at $8.76, up 3 cents, currently up 2 3/4 cents

Cash HRW Wheat  was $8.43 5/8, up 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 23 MGEX Wheat  closed at $9.17 1/2, down 4 cents, currently up 2 1/2 cents