Soy Red for Tuesday

Soybean futures are working with morning losses of 3 1/4 to 5 cents this Tuesday morning. November soybean futures expired at $14.41 3/4 on Monday, a net 1 1/4 cent premium to the now lead month Jan. The other futures faded 5 1/4 to 9 1/2 cents on the day. Soymeal futures closed with losses of $0.40 to $1.40 per ton. BO futures faded 69 points on the day. 

Weekly Crop Progress data showed soybean’s harvest advanced 2% points to 96% complete. That is 5% points ahead of average, with LA, NE, ND, and SD now finished. Iowa and Illinois were 99% and 98% harvested respectively. 

CFTC’s weekly report, delayed by the Veteran’s Day holiday, showed soybean spec traders closed shorts during the week that ended 11/8. That left the group at a net 103,908 contract net long. Commercial soybean traders added 32k new hedges during the week that left them on net 1,759 contracts more short at a 142,429 contract net short. In the products, CFTC had meal specs 2k contracts more net long at 95,420. The funds were 5k contracts more net long in soy oil to 105,210 contracts – their biggest net long since March of 2021.   

Weekly Inspections data confirmed 1.858 MMT of soybeans were exported through the week that ended 11/10. That was down from 2.61 MMT last week and was below the 2.43 MMT shipped during the same week last year. By port, USDA confirmed 56% of the week’s beans left via the Gulf, being watched closely due to low water levels on the Mississippi. China was the destination for 1.27 MMT of the total. USDA also added 20.5k MT of soybean exports to past reports for a season total of 14.69 MMT through 11/10. Last year had 16.625 MMT shipped through the same period. 

Analysts expect the NOPA crush report will show between 175 mbu and 191.3 mbu for October, with the average pre-report estimate for a 184.464 mbu crush. If realized that would be up 17% from September, but near even with last season. 

Safras and Mercado revised their soy production estimate 3 MMT higher for a 154.5 MMT Brazilian crop. USDA is at 152 MMT and CONAB went with 153.5 MMT. 

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.40 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents, currently down 5 1/2 cents

Nearby Cash   was $14.12 5/8 on Monday, down 9 1/4 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.44 3/4, down 9 cents, currently down 6 cents

May 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.51, down 8 1/4 cents, currently down 5 3/4 cents