Double Digit Soybean Losses through Midday

So far the Thursday soy market is down 1.6% to 1.9% with 24 to 28 1/2 cent losses. Meal prices are 2.5% to 3% weaker at midday. BO prices are gaining 15 to 84 points through midday. 

FAS Export Sales data showed 795k MT of soybeans were booked during the week that ended 11/3. That was within the range of estimates, and did not include any of this week’s large announcements. China was the top buyer with 927k MT – including 594k MT previously reported as unknown. Accumulated soybean commitments reached 33.1 MMT (1.216 bbu) as of 11/3. That trails last year’s pace by just 0.4% - representing 60% of the forecast; also matching last year’s pace. Last year, USDA raised 108 mbu from their November forecast.   

In the products, USDA had 170k MT of soymeal bookings and 2.7k MT of BO sales for the week. Traders surveyed were looking for between 100-300k MT in meal and below 20k MT of oil going in. 

Yesterday the USDA raised the average soybean yield 0.4 bpa higher to 50.2 bpa. At the state level NASS saw higher yields in MO with a 6% increase mo/mo to 48 bpa, a 2% NE boost to 50 flat, and a 1 bpa increase in IA to 59 bpa. The higher yields in the ECB were mostly UNCH from 55 bpa in OH to 64 in IL. On net, production was up 33 mbu to 4.346 bbu. Ending stocks were only up by 20 mbu on higher crush to 220 mbu. 

Globally, the WAOB trimmed production by 460k MT to 390.53 MMT mostly via a 1.5 MMT reduction in Argentina. Brazil was left UNCH in the report at 152. The CONAB soy output projection was raised by 1.2 MMT to 153.5 MMT. 

China’s COFCO expects soy crush to total 94 MMT in 2022. That would be 3 MMT above the last year’s crush. 

Nov 22 Soybeans  are at $14.36 1/2, down 23 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $13.96 3/8, down 25 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  are at $14.26 1/4, down 25 3/4 cents,

Mar 23 Soybeans  are at $14.31, down 26 1/4 cents,