Big 4-5% Gains in Soybeans

Soybean prices began the new week higher, but the market really took off after the WASDE report. Futures closed as much as 5.4% higher, with Nov 76 cents higher and within a dime of $15 mark at the high. Nov beans haven’t been $15+ since June 30th report. Soymeal led the complex higher with 5.8% to 7.3% gains. BO futures also rallied, but closed comparatively weaker on just 2.5% gains. USDA left the cash average prices UNCH. 

USDA reported a lighter soybean area, with 500k fewer planted acres and 600k lighter harvest now at 87.5m and 86.6m respectively. Yields were cut back by 1.4 bpa to 50.5 – the trade was looking for a 0.4 bpa cut going in. Factoring the net 138 mbu lighter supply through the balance sheet, USDA lowered their 22/23 crush estimate by 20 to 2.225 bbu, and their export forecast by 70 mbu to 2.085 bbu. Those compare to 2.205 and 2.145 bbu in 21/22 respectively. That was not enough to fully offset the fewer beans in supply, leaving a net 45 mbu tighter carryout of 200 flat. The trade expected 22/23 carryout to remain UNCH on average, with pre-report estimates ranging 203 – 335. 

Global S&Ds updated this morning showed a net 3 MMT lighter output, as non-reportables offset some of the U.S. cut. Global trade was 1.2 MMT lighter as Argentina picked up 400k MT from the August estimate. 22/23 carryout was cut 2.5 MMT as the trade was looking for a net 200k MT trim on average. 

After the close, the NASS Crop Progress update had 22% of the soybean crop dropping leaves as of 9/11. That compares to 10% last week and is 6% points behind the average pace. Soybean condition ratings converted to a 347 on the Brugler500 scale from the NASS ratings. That was 1 point lower wk/wk mainly driven by MS, LA, and TN. Conditions in OH improved wk/wk by 10 points. 

Weekly Inspections data from USDA had 329,225 MT of soybean shipments for the week that ended 9/8. That was down from 500k MT during last week, but was up form 193,894 MT during the same week last year. The MY total shipment reached 381,524 MT through the first full week (and a day). 

Sep 22 Soybeans  closed at $15.49 3/4, up 60 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   was $14.55 1/2, up 71 3/4 cents,

Nov 22 Soybeans  closed at $14.88 1/4, up 76 cents,

Jan 23 Soybeans  closed at $14.92 1/4, up 74 3/4 cents,