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30-Day Fed Funds May '18 (ZQK18)

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[[ timeframe ]] futures price quotes as of Mon, Oct 14th, 2019.
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30-Day Fed Funds Futures Market News and Commentary

10-year T-notes Close at a 1-1/2 Week Low as Stocks Surge on Trade and Brexit Optimism

Dec T-notes (ZNZ19) on Friday closed -26.5 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield rose by +8.5 bp to 1.753%. Dec T-note prices dropped to a 1-1/2 week low Friday and the 10-year T-note yield jumped to a 2-1/2 week high of 1.764% on a sharp rally global stocks and on negative carry-over from a surge in European government bond yields. Stock markets rallied sharply Friday on growing optimism that the U.S. and China can negotiate a trade truce. President Trump said after the markets closed Thursday that the senior-level trade talks on Thursday went "really well" and would continue on Friday. Negative carry-over from a surge in European government bond yields also undercut T-note prices Friday as the 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2-1/4 month high of -0.429% and the 10-year gilt yield climbed to a 3-1/2 week high yield of 0.719%. UK gilts sold off Friday on reduced safe-haven demand as optimism improved that a no-deal Brexit can be avoided. European Council President Tusk said Friday that he has received "promising signals" that a Brexit deal is possible. UK Prime Minister Johnson met with Irish premier Varadkar Thursday and they issued a joint statement saying that "they agreed that they could see a pathway to a possible deal." Friday's U.S. economic data was negative for T-notes after the Sep U.S. Sep import price index of +0.2% m/m and -1.6% y/y was stronger than expectations of unch m/m and -2.1% y/y. Also, the University of Michigan's Oct U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose +2.8 to 96.0, stronger than expectations of -1.2 to 92.0. A bullish factor for T-notes was Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari's comment on Friday that he is concerned that the labor market is showing signs of softening and that he would probably be in favor of an interest rate cut at the Oct 29-30 FOMC meeting. U.S. inflation expectations jumped Friday as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate rose to a 2-week high of 1.590% and finished the day up by +4.2 bp to 1.565% as it rebounds higher from Wednesday's 3-year low of 1.470%. Big Picture T-Note Market Factors: Bullish factors for T-note prices include (1) low global bond yields that are helping to pull U.S. bond yields lower, (2) weak U.S. inflation expectations that fell to a 3-year low, (3) weaker U.S. and global economic growth due to trade tensions, and (4) safe-haven demand due to trade tensions, Brexit risks, and geopolitical risks from Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. Bearish factors include (1) the forecast by FOMC members in the September Fed-dot plot for no more rate cuts in 2019-2020 and then a +25 bp rate hike in 2021 and a second rate hike in 2022, and (2) some continued simulative effects from the massive 2018 U.S. tax cut.
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