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30-Day Fed Funds May '18 (ZQK18)

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30-Day Fed Funds Futures Market News and Commentary

10-year T-notes Settle Higher on Expectations for a Fed Rate Cut and Middle East Tensions

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ19) on Tuesday closed up +7 ticks and the 10-year T-note yield fell -4.2 bp to 1.805%. Dec T-notes moved higher Tuesday on expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates on Wednesday along with heightened geopolitical risks that boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-notes saw support Tuesday from expectations for the Fed to cut the fed funds target range on Wednesday by -25 bp to 1.75%-2.00% from 2.00%-2.25%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain high and boosted safe-haven for T-notes on a possible U.S. military strike against Iran after CBS reported Tuesday that the U.S. has identified the exact locations in Iran where more than 20 drones and cruise missiles were launched in Saturday's attack on Saudi oil facilities. Also, the supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Tuesday that Iran will not negotiate with the U.S. "on any level." Tuesday's U.S. economic data was negative for T-note prices after Aug U.S. manufacturing production rose +0.5%, much stronger than expectations of +0.2%. Aug industrial production rose +0.6%, stronger than expectations of +0.2% and the biggest increase in a year. Also, the U.S. Sep NAHB housing market index unexpectedly rose +1 to an 11-month high of 68, stronger than expectations of no change at 66. U.S. inflation expectations weakened Tuesday as the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell by -0.5 bp at 1.670%. The 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations is up sharply from last Tuesday's 2-3/4 year low of 1.494%.
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