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Sugar #11 Oct '19 (SBV19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Slide on Weak Brazilian Real and Forecasts for Increased India Exports

July NY world sugar #11 (SBN19) on Monday closed down -0.09 (-0.71%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) closed down -1.90 (-0.57%). Sugar prices settled lower Monday as weakness in the Brazilian real weighed on sugar prices after the real on Monday fell to a 2-week low against the dollar. A weaker real against the dollar encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers. Sugar prices were already on the defensive from last Friday's report from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) that India's sugar mills expect to export a record 7 million MT of sugar in 2019/20 to reduce its huge stockpiles, up from 3 million MT in 2018/19. Another possible bearish factor for London sugar was last Friday's new that money managers cut their net short position by 1,759 to a 6-week low of 17,055 contracts in the week ended June 11, which reduces the chances of a short-covering squeeze. Jul NY sugar rallied to a 1-1/2 month high last Friday on carry-over support from last Thursday's forecast from India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd that India 2019/20 sugar production will fall -15% y/y to a 3-year low of 28 MMT due to drought and a delayed monsoon season. Sugar also has support from last Tuesday's news from Unica that Brazil Center-South 2019/20 sugar production during Oct-May fell -11.96% y/y to 4.856 MMT, with the percentage of sugar cane crushed for sugar falling to 33.41% from 34.45% last year and the percentage of cane crushed for ethanol production rising to a record 65.59% from 65.55% last year due to very strong Brazilian ethanol demand. On the negative side, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) last Monday raised its 2019/20 global sugar surplus estimate to 1.832 MMT from a Feb estimate of +641,000 MT.
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