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Robusta Coffee 10-T May '18 (RMK18)

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Robusta Coffee 10-T Futures Market News and Commentary

Coffee Prices Slip on Weakness in the Brazilian Real

September arabica coffee (KCU19) on Friday closed down by -1.30 (-1.20%), and Sep ICE robusta coffee (RMU19) closed down by -8 (-0.56%). Arabica coffee prices on Friday were pressured by weakness in the Brazilian real against the dollar Friday since a weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's coffee producers. Another negative is the outlook for dry weather in Brazil to speed up the country's coffee harvest. Coffee prices posted 3-week lows Monday as dry conditions in Brazil accelerated Brazil's coffee harvest after Somar Meteorologia said there was no rainfall in the past week in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing region. Cooxupe reported Tuesday that Brazil's coffee harvest was 66% completed as of July 12, well ahead of last year's comparable 46% level. In a supportive factor for coffee prices, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) on July 3 cut its global 2018/19 coffee surplus estimate by -8.8% to 3.11 mln bags from a prior view of 3.41 mln bags. Also, current coffee supplies have tightened after the Green Coffee Association on Monday reported that U.S. June green coffee inventories fell -0.4% y/y to 6.82 mln bags. Also, ICE-monitored coffee inventories dropped to a 10-month low of 2.363 mln bags Thursday, down from March's 4-3/4 year high of 2.503 mln bags. A positive for robusta coffee is smaller supply from Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta beans, after data from Vietnam's General Department of Vietnam Customs on July 11 showed that Vietnam June coffee exports fell -8.6% y/y to 142,448 MT and for the first half of 2019 fell by -11.5% y/y to 919,038 MT. A negative for robusta coffee was Tuesday's estimate from researcher Cepea for Brazil's robusta harvest this year to approach 15 mln bags, up from 13.9 mln bags estimated by Conab. Big Picture Coffee Market Factors: World coffee production (Oct/Sep) in 2018/19 will climb +1.5% y/y to a record 167.747 mln bags with global consumption +2.0% y/y to 164.636 mln bags (ICO). The world coffee surplus in 2018/19 will fall to 3.11 mln bags from the mildly larger 2017/18 surplus of 3.836 mln bags (ICO). USDA projects global 2018/19 coffee production will climb +7.1% y/y to a record 171.166 mln bags and global 2018/19 coffee ending stocks will increase by +11.6% to a 3-year high of 32.812 mln bags.
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