S&P 500 Real Estate Futures Market News and Commentary
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) on Tuesday closed up +0.68%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) closed up +0.65%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) closed up +0.63%. U.S. stocks on Tuesday rallied on US/Chinese trade optimism after Bloomberg reported that U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer and his team will travel to China early next week through Wednesday to resume face-to-face trade talks with China. U.S. stocks also rallied on the late-Monday news that Congress and the White House agreed on 2-year budget caps and a 2-year debt ceiling suspension, which if passed would avert the threat of a U.S. Treasury default in September or October when the Treasury would otherwise run out of cash. U.S. stocks on Tuesday also found support from positive earnings reports today from Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin and United Technologies, although there were negative reports from PulteGroup, Zions Bancorp and Whirlpool. Stocks were undercut by Tuesday's weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. The May FHFA U.S. home price index rose by only +0.1% m/m (vs expectations of +0.4%), the July Richmond Fed index fell by -15 to points to -12 (vs expectations of a rise to 5), and June existing home sales fell by -1.7% to 5.27 million units (below expectations of 5.32 million). Also, the IMF on Tuesday cut its world GDP forecast from April's forecast by -0.1 points for both 2019 and 2020. The IMF is now forecasting world GDP growth of +3.2% in 2019 and +3.5 in 2020. The expected +3.2% world GDP growth in 2019 would be the weakest figure since the global financial crisis. The IMF warned that policy "missteps" on trade and Brexit would likely derail the expected uptick in GDP growth in 2020 to +3.5% from +3.2% in 2019. The VIX on Tuesday fell to a 4-session low and closed the day -0.92 at 12.61%, just mildly above the early-July 3-month low of 12.04% and April's 11-1/4 month low of 11.03%.