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Australian Dollar Mar '19 (A6H19)

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Australian Dollar Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Index Falls to a 1-Week Low on EUR/USD Strength and Weak US Durable Goods Orders

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday fell by -0.27 (-0.28%) to a 1-week low. June euro-fx futures (E6M9) closed up +23 (+0.20%) at a 1-week high and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.0029 (+0.26%) to a 1-week high. June yen futures (J6M9) closed up +9 (+0.10%) at a 1-week high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) fell -0.25 (-0.23%) to a 1-week low. The dollar index moved lower Friday on strength in EUR/USD and on weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. EUR/USD rose to a 1-week high Friday after political risks in Italy eased when Italian Deputy Prime Minister Salvini said he would be willing to talk to French and German leaders to try to secure a higher national debt ratio. The dollar extended its losses Friday morning after the U.S. Apr durable goods orders report of -2.1% and unchanged ex-transportation was slightly weaker than expectations of -2.0% and +0.1% ex-transportation. Also, USD/JPY fell to a 1-week low on the stronger-than-expected Japan Apr national CPI (ex fresh food & energy) report of +0.6% y/y, the largest increase in 2-3/4 years. Finally, GBP/USD recovered slightly from Thursday's 4-1/2 month low on short covering after UK Prime Minister May said she will step down as Conservative Party leader on June 7 with an election to choose her replacement beginning on June 10. Big Picture Dollar Factors: Bullish factors for the dollar index include (1) the Fed's balance sheet drawdown program through September and the Fed-dot forecast for one more rate hike in 2020 vs near-zero policy rates by the ECB and BOJ, (2) relative strength in the U.S. economy, and (3) the repatriation of U.S. corporate overseas cash under the 2018 tax law. Bearish factors include (1) the decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a 1-1/2 year low of 2.290%, which weakens the dollar's interest rate differentials, (2) market expectations for at least two Fed rate cuts through 2020, (3) trade tensions and Washington political uncertainty, and (4) the wide U.S. budget and current account deficits. Bearish factors for EUR/USD include (1) the ECB's promise to leave interest rates unchanged at least through end-2019, (2) weak Eurozone economic growth, (3) the slump in the 10-year bund yield to a 2-1/2 year low of -0.132%, which undercuts the euro's interest rate differentials, and (4) Brexit risks.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Australian Dollar
Contract Size
AUD 100,000
Tick Size
0.0001 points ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CME
Point Value
$100,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,485/1,350
First Notice Date
03/18/19
Expiration Date
03/18/19 (expired)

Seasonal Chart

Australian Dollar Mar '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Mar Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of May 21, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
109,635 (+5,316)
30,466 (+3,054)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
39,757 (+10,627)
105,868 (+12,692)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
81,787 (+4,547)
4,913 (+1,419)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
17,954 (+1,442)
69,029 (+8,083)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
40,382 (+9,469)
50,633 (+6,645)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
3,102 (+1,402)
5,592 (+516)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
0.70040 +1.34%
on 03/08/19
0.72100 -1.55%
on 02/21/19
-0.00450 (-0.63%)
since 02/15/19
3-Month
0.68250 +4.00%
on 01/03/19
0.73000 -2.77%
on 01/31/19
-0.00820 (-1.14%)
since 12/18/18
52-Week
0.68250 +4.00%
on 01/03/19
0.78190 -9.22%
on 04/19/18
-0.06410 (-8.28%)
since 03/16/18

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The dollar index (DXY00) this morning is down by -0.143 (-0.15%) at a 1-wek low. June euro-fx futures (E6M9) closed up +19 (+0.17%) and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0012 (+0.11%) at a 1-week high. June...

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The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday fell by -0.182 (-0.19%). June euro-fx futures (E6M9) closed up +19 (+0.17%) and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.0031 (+0.28). June yen futures (J6M9) closed up +64 (+0.71%)...

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 48% Sell with a Weakest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Weak. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 0.71380
1st Resistance Point 0.71180
Last Price 0.70980s
1st Support Level 0.70790
2nd Support Level 0.70600

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52-Week High 0.78190
Fibonacci 61.8% 0.74393
Fibonacci 50% 0.73220
Fibonacci 38.2% 0.72047
Last Price 0.70980s
52-Week Low 0.68250

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InsideFutures Commentary

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