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Australian Dollar Sep '19 (A6U19)

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Australian Dollar Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Retreats to a 1-Week Low on Escalation of China Trade Tensions

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday fell by -0.516 (-0.53%). Sep euro-fx futures (E6U9) closed up +0.0060 (+0.54%), and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.0069 (+0.62%). Sep yen futures (J6U9) closed up by +0.0099 (+1.05%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) fell -1.10 (-1.03%). The dollar index fell back from a 3-week high Friday and posted to a 1-week low after China said it will levy retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. China's Ministry of Commerce said Friday that it will impose additional tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods with some of the tariffs starting Sep 1 and the rest on Dec 15. The dollar's losses accelerated Friday after President Trump said he announce a response to the Chinese tariffs on Friday afternoon, which sparked speculation he may move to weaken the dollar after the yuan which fell to a new 11-1/4 year low of 7.1017 yuan/USD on Friday. Dovish Fed comments also undercut the dollar after Fed Chair Powell on Friday said the U.S. economy is in a favorable place but faces "significant risks" and "we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion." Also, St. Louis Fed President Bullard on Friday said, "we are willing to take all actions we need to continue the expansion" and that he expects a "robust debate" on a 50 bp rate cut by the Fed next month. Friday's U.S. economic data was dollar negative after Jul new home sales unexpectedly fell -12.8% to 635,000, weaker than expectations of +0.2% to 647,000. USD/JPY retreated from a 1-week high Friday and dropped to a 1-1/2 week low after escalation of the U.S./China trade war sparked a sell-off in stocks and boosted the safe-haven demand for the yen. USD/JPY had posted a 1-week high in overnight trade after Japan Jul national CPI rose +0.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.6% y/y, which is dovish for BOJ policy. Big Picture Dollar Factors: Bullish factors for the dollar index include (1) the Fed's go-slow approach to cutting interest rates, (2) relative strength in the U.S. economy, and (3) the repatriation of U.S. corporate overseas cash under the 2018 tax law. Bearish factors include (1) market expectations for four Fed rate cuts through the end of 2020, (2) trade tensions and Washington political uncertainty, and (3) the wide U.S. budget and current account deficits. Bearish factors for EUR/USD include (1) expectations for the ECB to cut interest rates by -10 bp at its September meeting and to restart its QE program, (2) weak Eurozone economic growth, (3) the extremely low 10-year bund yield of -0.727%, which illustrates the euro's poor interest rate differentials, and (4) Brexit risks.

Contract Specifications

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Contract
Australian Dollar
Contract Size
AUD 100,000
Tick Size
0.0001 points ($10.00 per contract)
Trading Hours
5:00p.m. - 4:00p.m. (Sun-Fri) (Settles 2:00p.m.) CST
Exchange
CME
Point Value
$100,000
Margin/Maintenance
$1,485/1,350
First Notice Date
09/16/19 (24 days)
Expiration Date
09/16/19 (24 days)

Seasonal Chart

Australian Dollar Sep '19
Average Price Chart for 5 Prior Sep Contracts

Commitment of Traders Positions as of Aug 20, 2019

View Chart Details
Commercials - Long / Short
106,719 (-432)
32,822 (-776)
Non-Commercials - Long / Short
32,358 (-3,946)
95,139 (-4,077)
Dealers / Intermediary - Long / Short
88,315 (-241)
7,066 (-391)
Asset / Manager - Long / Short
13,410 (-48)
54,867 (-1,847)
Leveraged Funds - Long / Short
30,312 (-4,088)
56,509 (-3,293)
Other Reportables - Long / Short
0 (unch)
2,479 (+679)
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Price Performance

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Period Period Low Period High Performance
1-Month
0.66850 +1.09%
on 08/07/19
0.70170 -3.69%
on 07/24/19
-0.02560 (-3.65%)
since 07/23/19
3-Month
0.66850 +1.09%
on 08/07/19
0.70940 -4.74%
on 07/19/19
-0.01570 (-2.27%)
since 05/23/19
52-Week
0.66850 +1.09%
on 08/07/19
0.74250 -8.98%
on 12/04/18
-0.05160 (-7.09%)
since 08/23/18

More Australian Dollar Quotes

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Most Recent Stories

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Dollar Retreats to a 1-Week Low on Escalation of China Trade Tensions

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday fell by -0.516 (-0.53%). Sep euro-fx futures (E6U9) closed up +0.0060 (+0.54%), and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.0069 (+0.62%). Sep yen futures (J6U9) closed up by +0.0099...

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The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday fell by -0.125 (-0.13%). Sep euro-fx futures (E6U9) closed down -0.0002 (-0.02%), and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.0001 (+0.01%). Sep yen futures (J6U9) closed up by +0.0014...

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Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 72% Sell with a Strongest short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Strong. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

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Key Turning Points

2nd Resistance Point 0.68027
1st Resistance Point 0.67803
Last Price 0.67580s
1st Support Level 0.67383
2nd Support Level 0.67187

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52-Week High 0.74250
Fibonacci 61.8% 0.71423
Fibonacci 50% 0.70550
Fibonacci 38.2% 0.69677
Last Price 0.67580s
52-Week Low 0.66850

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