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Australian Dollar Sep '19 (A6U19)

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Australian Dollar Futures Market News and Commentary

Dollar Slips on Strength in GBP/USD and Global Growth Concerns

The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday fell by -0.125 (-0.13%). Sep euro-fx futures (E6U9) closed down -0.0002 (-0.02%), and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) rose +0.0001 (+0.01%). Sep yen futures (J6U9) closed up by +0.0014 (+0.15%), and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) fell -0.23 (-0.22%). The dollar index moved lower Thursday on strength in GBP/USD along with concerns about global growth that may prompt the Fed to keep cutting interest rates. GBP/USD rallied +1.06% Thursday to a 3-week high on some hope about a Brexit deal. German Chancellor Merkel said Thursday that there was time until the end of October to reach a deal, while French President Macron said Thursday that a new deal won't be very different from the existing one. Losses in the dollar were limited Thursday on hawkish Fed comments. Kansas City Fed President George said Thursday the U.S. economy "doesn't need more accommodation without seeing an outlook that suggests the economy is getting weaker." Also, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said, "the labor market is strong, and inflation is moving up slowly" and that he's "on hold" right now for further Fed rate cuts. U.S./China trade tensions remain high, which is dollar negative, after the yuan fell to a new 11-1/4 year low against the dollar Thursday at 7.0965 yuan/USD. The yuan recovered slightly but still finished the day down -0.34% at 7.0866 yuan/USD. EUR/USD posted a 3-week low Thursday after the minutes of the July 24-25 ECB meeting bolstered speculation the ECB will boost stimulus measures. The ECB minutes said policy makers agreed the Eurozone's economic slowdown was likely to be more protracted than expected and that the prospects for global trade "remained poor." The ECB's comment about "poor" global growth was negative for the dollar due to expectations that the Fed may need to keep cutting interest rates. EUR/USD found underlying support after Thursday's data showed that the Eurozone Aug Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.5 to 47.0, stronger than expectations of -0.3 to 46.2. However, Eurozone Aug consumer confidence fell -0.5 to -7.1, weaker than expectations of -0.4 to -7.0. Thursday's U.S. economic data was mixed. Weekly initial unemployment claims fell -12,000 to 209,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of -4,000 to 216,000, which was dollar supportive. However, the Aug Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.5 to 49.9, weaker than expectations of +0.1 to 50.5 and the first time that manufacturing activity contracted in nearly 10 years, which is dovish for Fed policy and dollar-negative.
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