Double Digit Weakness in Wheats

Wheat futures are down by double digits through midday. Chicago futures are trading with 16 1/4 to 19 1/2 cent losses so far. KC wheat futures are down by as much as 18 cents. Spring wheat are trading 8 to 13 1/2 cents in the red through midday. Oats Futures Prices  are staying firm with gains of 2 to 8 3/4 cents/bu in the front months. 

NASS reported the spring wheat planting at 94% nationally with emergence as 72%. Initial spring wheat conditions came in at 54% good/ex and 9% poor/vp for a Brugler500 score of 348. That was up from 333 from last year’s initial, but behind last year, marks the lowest initial ratings since at least 2012. As for winter wheat, the Crop Progress report showed conditions were down 1 point on the Brugler500 index to 270. TX winter wheat was still an abysmal 163 on the Brugler500 index. NASS marked the national harvest at 10% complete, as TX was more than half cut and KS began harvesting with 2% finished. On average, 12% of the national crop is out by week 24. 

Ukraine’s Ag Minister suggested 15 MMT of grain storage capacity is lost, destroyed, or inaccessible for the 22/23 harvest – citing the Russian war. That is on top of the unshipped/unsold grain still present from 21/22’s crop. The Minister called on Eurpoean allies for temporary storage. USDA’s estimates showed 21/22 wheat carryout in Ukraine was up 4.1 MMT yr/yr, and an additional bump to stocks would take the 22/23 pile to a 30-yr high – second only to 1992/93 as the largest pile since the Ukraine broke from the Soviet Union. Separately, government officials in Ukraine estimate total grain area for 22/23 is down 25% from 21/22. 

Turkey has allowed the TMO to negotiate government to government wheat imports, as opposed to their traditional tender process. The decision comes after India banned wheat exports while allowing government to government sales as an exception. 

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat  is at $10.51 1/4, down 19 3/4 cents,

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $9.93 3/8, down 19 5/8 cents,

Jul 22 KCBT Wheat  is at $11.42 1/2, down 19 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $10.94 3/4, down 19 1/4 cents,

Jul 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $12.08 1/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

Sep 22 MGEX Wheat  is at $12.08 1/4, down 13 1/2 cents,